Fun Friday: Super Bowl Weekend

It's fun friday again. And because this weekend brings us the big game, I figured we'd talk about it.

I'm rooting for the Giants. They were 7-7 and going nowhere and then something happened and they have got a winning attitude and are surging going into the big game. As a Jet fan, there is no team I dislike more than the Patriots, so a Giants win would make me very happy.

I think the Patriots are vulnerable on defense and the Giants defensive line is going to get to Brady and make him rush. Giants 27 Patriots 10.

As for commercials, which are the main event anyway, I'm hoping for something special from the E*TRADE baby and am praying that none of our portfolio companies are running ads.

And I'm sure Madonna will give us a G rated halftime show. I'm not even sure I'll watch that.

Please leave your predictions for the game in the comments and pick the winner in this Quipol.

 

Engagio Followup

Back in early December 2011, I wrote a blog post about Engagio, a new web service launched by our very own William Mougayar. For those who didn't read that post, Engagio is a service that aggregates your comment activity across many of the major social platforms and gives you a gmail style dashboard to see them and reply to them.

A lot has happened in the past 45 days since that post and I wanted to bring everyone up to speed on this project.

First, and most importantly, Engagio is now open to everyone. Every few days, I'd send an email to William saying "you have to open it up". And he'd reply, "we can't scale it yet". Now they think they can scale it, so it's open to everyone. If you didn't or couldn't check it out back then, you can now.

There are a bunch of new features, large and small. Most of them are pretty useful. A good example of that is social profiles. Here's Fake Grimlock's social profile, for example.

There is even a "fred wilson feature." At Disqus, the "fred wilson feature" was the ability to get an email for every comment and the ability to reply to the email and post it to the comment thread. At Engagio, the "fred wilson feature" is the ability to "mute a site." I get so many comments on AVC that my Engagio inbox is filled with them and I see nothing else. When I mute AVC, I see all my other commenting activity on the web, at Twitter, at Foursquare, at other blogs. This single feature has made Engagio way more useful to me. To "mute a site", you go to the Sites page via the left nav section, and click on the icon next to the site name.

Finally a disclosure. Engagio did a small seed round to given them runway to execute the "build the user base" stage of the business. My wife and I made a small angel investment in this round. I've been encouraging William to do this project since he first mentioned it to me in the fall. It seemed only right to encourage with both words and capital.

Please let William and me know what you think of the progress Engagio has made since it launched 45 days ago in the comments.

Dispersion and Entropy In Social Media

On Monday, I trained it up to New Haven to meet a Yale professor named Dina Mayzlin and talk to her class. I thoroughly enjoyed talking to Dina's class as it allowed me to work on some new material in a comfortable setting. But the talk Dina and I had over breakfast before class was even more thought provoking.

Dina got her PhD at MIT's Sloan School a decade ago, before she started teach at Yale. Her thesis looked at TV shows being talked about in the social media of that time, newsgroups, IRC, Usenet, etc, etc.

What she and her colleagues found out was that volume (number of mentions) was not a good predictor of popularity. Volume was more of a trailing indicator than a leading indicator.

But Disperson, or what Dina calls Entropy, turned out to be a very reliable leading indicator of popularlity of a TV show. The wider and broader the discussion of the TV show went within online social media, the more likely the show was to become popular.

By coincidence, the material I am working on in my public talks right now is about the fragmentation of social media. And so as I talked about fragmentation with Dina's Yale class, I started to weave her work, which was still rattling around in my brain, into my fragmentation thesis.

I am totally convinced that the world of social media is not consolidating around one "winner takes all" social platform. Instead, the world of social media is fragmenting into dozens of social platforms that are best of breed for a certain kind of social engagement. If you are building a social media strategy today, you absolutely need to address Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Tumblr. And you should also consider Foursquare, Instagram, Pinterest and Path. If you are in the music business, you need to consider SoundCloud. If you are in the book business, you need to consider Wattpad. If you are in the TV business, you need to conside GetGlue. And so on and so forth. Many of the companies I just mentioned, but not all of them sadly, are USV portfolio companies.

That's the thesis I spent thirty minutes on in front of the Yale class. But near the end of the talk to Dina's class, it occured to me that disperson/entropy can be gained by engaging on multiple social platforms. The number of likes on Facebook or tweets on Twitter is volume and is likely to be a trailing indicator of popularity. But if you track the essential social gestures across the fragmenting landscape of social platforms, likes, tweets, tumbls, checkins, pins, etc, then you get a measure of dispersion that may well be a leading indicator of popularity or the slope of the popularity curve.

That's the theory anyway. I'll leave the research to Dina and others. I hope someone will run the numbers to see if it works.

Understanding Twitter

Twitter is one of the most misunderstood companies I've ever worked with. When you are in the inside, or close to the inside, and you see what people write, it makes you shake your head.

Yesterday Dick Costolo, CEO of Twitter, was interviewed by Peter Kafka on stage at the D: Dive Into Media conference. Here's a 13 minute edit of that interview that I watched this morning. I think Dick does a great job of addressing much of the misinformation that has been written about Twitter this past few weeks.

I've worked with Dick since he was the co-founder and CEO of our former portfolio company Feedburner. I worked closely with Ev Williams to convince Dick to join Twitter and I am incredibly happy and also quite proud to see how good of a job he is doing running Twitter.

The Management Team - Guest Post From JLM

Next up on our guest posts on the subject of The Management Team is AVC community regular JLM. For those that don't know, JLM runs a public company and before that built and sold a large real estate operation. He's also written one of the best guest posts ever on AVC. With that intro, here's what JLM has to say on the topic. I love the way he ends the post.

----------------------------

 

Congratulations, you have built a prototype.  Got it to work.  Debugged it.  Even sold a few copies.  Have some real customers.  Now you are ready to scale up and make some real money.

 

You have crossed that Rubicon from having an idea to having a product and customers.  Now you have to build an organization, a real company, to manage the entire process.  Or your fledging little company has to evolve from crawl to walk to run.

 

You may look yourself in the mirror and say --- “Well, I know a lot about my product, even its market and competitors but what the heck do I really know about building a company?”  Can I do this?

 

The simple and truthful answer is “Yes, you can!”  If you don’t think so, here are some tips to take you from the garage to the executive suite.

 

Bad news --- your generation did not invent sex.  It does not have to invent the crafting of companies either.  Someone else has also done this before.

 

Create a clever and insightful graphical representation of the business model which will become your company.

  1. Identify who the customers are and why they will pay money for your product.  This is the revenue side of the model.

  2. Identify the elements which must be incorporated into your product to create it.  This is the expense side of the model.

  3. Identify all the management functions which are necessary to transform the ingredients into the product and to educate the customers and to make the sale and to manage the money.

  4. Identify the competitive forces that are lurking in the darkness wanting to destroy you --- the ones that are real and the imaginary ones.

Make a drawing of all of this on a single very large piece of paper and then marvel at what you have done.  Do it about ten times until you have perfected it.  It keeps getting better each time.

 

This is the company you will have to create.  The one that can operate this business model.  The one which can deliver your product to the marketplace and make a buck in the process.

 

Make an organization chart which shows each of the functions that are necessary to operate the business model.

  1. Make it a functional chart and don’t worry that it turns out very close to what every company ever created looks like.  That is good.  Remember, you did not invent sex.

  2. Identify the functions which are “essential” and those which are “nice to have”.

  3. Now identify what you can afford and what you can stretch to afford and those which are simply out of reach for the time being.

You have now identified your immediate, short term and long term organizational imperatives.

Take the business model and the organization chart and color code it to identify your own personal strengths and weaknesses.  If you have a co-founder, put his up there also.  Now you have identified those elements of leadership and management that you can provide and those you will have to hire from the outside.  Be tough on yourselves; don’t undertake a task you hate just for the ego enrichment of it all.

 

Be prepared to hire people who are fabulous in their fields.  Hire a Chief Financial Officer you cannot possibly afford and tell him he is the “financial conscience of the company”.  Meet with him weekly and never miss a meeting.

 

Now take the business model and the color coded organization chart and create a schedule of how you will build the organization.  Which functions will be added first and why?  The business model will tell you what and the color coded organization chart will tell you who and the schedule will tell you when.

 

That is really all there is to it but you will want to consider the following considerations:

  1. It will not be perfect out of the chute.  You will do some stuff that does not work.  Just re-engage and do it over.  It’s going to be OK.  Really punish yourself --- just kidding.  Learn to laugh at yourself.

  2. Understand that everything in life is iterative.  You do something.  Get better at it.  Get better at it some more and one day you laugh to remember how naïve you were when you started.  Ever learn to ski or snowboard?

  3. Do the formulaic and fundamental stuff and get it done but only do what you really believe.

Vision, Mission & Values

  1. Vision --- big dreams and little dreams all cost the same, so go with the big ones so that if you only accomplish fifty percent, it will still make your Momma proud.

  2. Mission --- simple, direct and jettison every extra word.  The mission of the Infantry --- “Find ‘em. Fix ‘em.  Kill ‘em.”

  3. Values --- sweat this one because you will have to live this one.  If you are going to take risks and run with the bulls, this is where you let everyone know.  Don’t be afraid to say that “frugal” is a value.  I like frugal.

Every new employee hears the values part of the company from you and only you.  Wear a suit and a crisp white shirt and a tie and tie shoes.  Do it in the first five minutes of their employment.  They will never forget that.  Don’t discuss them, tell them.  Difference between a tattoo and magic marker.

  1. Job descriptions --- don’t hold out for a Pulitzer but put some thought into it.

  2. Copy the absolute best exemplars you can find out there.  They are out there.  Be a copy cat.  Read Drucker.

  3. Make all your decisions about equity upfront and don’t be afraid to say that you have to “earn” it.  Understand that equity is an element of compensation and sometimes it is not even in the top three.  

A good comp plan includes: 

  1.     Salary;
  2.     Benefits;
  3.     Short term incentives (measurable performance based bonus);
  4.     Long term incentives (equity); and,
  5.     Something special (work from Colorado two weeks per year).

  1. Develop a philosophy of management.  Write it down.  Try it out on some folks whose wisdom you admire.  Put it to work.  Live it.

  2. Get a mentor, a rabbi, a gray haired eminence who is willing to work with you.  Golfers get swing coaches but great swing coaches work on the golfer’s head as much as his back swing.  Get a professional coach.

  3. Do not be surprised that everyone in the company does not share your passion.  That is the curse of being an entrepreneur --- you see and care about things other people don’t even know exist.  I would rather be a Captain of a rowboat than the second in command on the QE II.

  4. Do not make changes, conduct experiments.  Nobody can resist an experiment.  Experiments that work well have a thousand fathers and mothers.  It becomes their idea.

  5. Brainstorm at least once a month.  Honest to God, uninterrupted brainstorming.  There are no bad ideas.

  6. Learn to critique yourself.  Learn to talk yourself down off the ledge.  Be thoughtful.  Take the lowest echelon of the company to lunch once a month.  And then talk to them.  Listen to them.  Make one change they came up with and you will become a legend.

  7. In any organization, you rarely receive power.  You take power.  You wield power.  The most powerful people will things to be done they don’t order them to be done.  That is real power.

Ooops, I see the hook.  So I must go.  Good luck.  Remember --- you can do it.

3D Movies

I've been to a bunch of 3D movies now. It seems to be all the rage in the movie theaters these days. I have to say that I am not a fan. I have yet to go to a 3D movie where I didn't want to take the glasses off and watch in 2D. That doesn't work, but I sure wish it did. And I've been to the films that people say are the best of the 3D medium (Avatar, Hugo). So it's not that I haven't been to the right films. I just don't think 3D improves the experience in any meaningful way.

What's worse is that 3D films cost more to see in the theaters than 2D films so you get a worse experience for more money. And judging by trailers I've seen in the theaters recently, it seems that Holywood is using 3D as an excuse to reissue some old favorites with a 3D facelift. 

I feel like 3D is a gimmick. One the other hand the new HD display technologies like OLED and quad-HD are getting us to crisper and higher definition displays that produce some of the same effects of 3D without the gimmicky stuff.

I'm hoping 3D will turn out to be a fad and that wearing glasses in the theater (and god forbid at home) will be something we look back on in ten years and say "did we really do that?"

Search vs Social

I was at a meeting yesterday regarding the ongoing online piracy discussion and the conversation turned to search as a source of traffic to sites with pirated content. I stopped the conversation and noted that search isn't what it used to be and pointed out that many websites get more traffic from social than search.

Here at AVC, it is no contest. Here's the top ten traffic sources to AVC in the past thirty days:

AVC traffic sources

Google/organic is search. Direct and feedburner are regular visitors. Everything else (Stumbleupon, Twitter (t.co), Hacker News (news.ycombinator), Techmeme, google/referral, Facebook, and Linkedin are social. So if we break the top ten into three categories, direct is about half of the top ten's traffic, social is 40%, and search is 10%.

This blog isn't normal in a few ways. The fact that Twitter generates 13x Facebook in traffic is one example of that. And the very high level of direct/regular readers is probably a bit unusual too.

I'm curious if anyone is aware of a broader study of traffic sources on the Internet and how search and social compare these days. I suspect that they are neck and neck across the entire Internet or possibly that social has surpassed search. But I have not seen that data and I'd love to.