Clark Is Toast?

When I read Jeff Jarvis say this once, I thought, "he's going a bit overboard with that one". But when I read it a second time, I realized that he's serious.

Well I think that if Clark and Edwards come in a relative tie for third with between 10% and 15% of the vote, or even if Clark comes in fourth with a double digit percentage, he's far from toast. I think anything Clark achieves north of single digits in New Hampshire, a place very far from his base in the south, will be impressive.

To bastardize an Al Sharpton quote, "If I got 18% of the vote, I'd still be in Iowa hooting and hollering". If you look at the total vote count and not on the expectations that the spin masters focus on, you see a different picture.

For one thing, this guy just started his campaign four months ago and had to skip Iowa because he couldn't mount an effective campaign in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And he's missed out on the post Iowa bounce that Edwards got that could have been his.

And, this guy is still a rookie. He hasn't been able to spend years developing a nuanced position on abortion or gun control or whether Bush indeed was AWOL or not. He just jumped into the race and became easy fodder for guys like Tim Russerts and Peter Jennings who love to take apart these guys every chance they get. I point to Dave Winer for more on this thought.

So if the Democrats want to send their talented rookie back to the minors just because he gave up some homers to Tim and Peter last week, that is their perogative. But I think sending out the old guys with tired arms may be a mistake too. Let's at least let the rookie pitch a few more games before we start calling him "toast".

Comments

[Jeff Jarvis]

Still, I want to know who's your second choice?

[Charlie Sierra]

Look this Clark guy is way out of his league.

His motto really ought to be:

"Vote for Clark,
I'm the only guy that makes
Al Haig not seem like a megalomaniac."

His base in the south???
You're are kidding right?

Since when does a General have a political 'base'? anywhere?

Get real, man, and get over this crush on Clark.

Unless the DEMs run Hillary, this group of anklebiters have zero chance against Bush.

[A N N A]

well, i agree with you.

i have degrees in poli-sci and pol. mgmt, i've run and worked on campaigns and i STILL think Clark is the one, even though my cohorts back in DC aren't so sure. i'm bucking conventional wisdom on this too, and i liked your post.

[Tom W]

Hey Fred - Even Joe Lieberman's breathing up Clark's back for the conservative Dem vote. I think he's toast tonite. I flirted with him briefly when Kerry was in the dregs, but it's hard to find a there there.

[Robin]

As much as Kerry puts me to sleep, I'll be the first to admit that he's a much more viable choice than Clark or Lieberman. Dean is still alive, but barely. Edwards is making a VERY strong case for himself either as VP, or a candidate next go round. Could he win against Bush? Well, considering Bush didn't "win" in the first place, I actually think anything is possible, so yeah, Edwards has a decent chance against Bush. Right now though it seems like it's just a waiting game to see if Kerry can put the final nails in Dean's coffin, or if Dean will rise again. (minus the YEEEEEEARRRGGGHHH!)

[Clark Twain]

Clark has a base allright- army base, navy base, air force bases... the man did not get four stars going AWOL. He returned to the army after his wounds and restore the honor and integrity our armed forces should merit.
Clark is a Rhodes scholar who speaks four languages and has appeared before the supreme court and at judicial proceedings in Europe. Diplomacy is his trademark, 1.5 million lives saved without a casualty and southeast europe was fully stabilized, when otherwise the new democracies of the unfolded iron curtain could have spun into a vortex of instability.

The man to move forward with the EU is Clark. He helped set the tone of stability there. NATO can attest to that.

Anklebiters? Four star anklebiter? Rhodes scholar anklebiter? Amicus brief for affirmative action anklebiter?
The only knock on him is his contracting, who better to know a bad offer when they see it for the spiraling defense-antiterror budget? The same man whose downsized army suffered no loss in saving a small nation from ethnic cleansing.

Clark's restriant and diplomacy will win this race. Kerry is just a platform carrying bush basher. Every time 'JFK' bludgeons Bush his own voting recod will backlash as well.


Jobs are the number one family value, Clark is the number one candidate. Simple enough.