Zogby Calls The Election
Six months in advance, pollster John Zogby is calling the November election.
For Kerry
Musings of a VC in NYC
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Read this post and burst into song. Am linking to it from my blog as we speak.
Posted by: rocknrollchica | May 10, 2004 at 02:57 PM
Well, the econometric models call for Bush, based on current economic growth.
Dismal Scientist calls it for Bush with 54% of the popular vote, 373 to 165 in the Electoral College.
Yale's Ray Fair lets you enter your own assumptions. Any way you do, it doesn't look good for Kerry, with current GDP growth at around 4%, inflation around 2-3%, and (so far) 6 quarters of strong growth in Bush's term.
the Iowa Electronic Market favors Kerry.
Growth in real income generally explains much of the variation in presidential votes. And it has been pretty good for Bush.
The critical exception is wartime - in 1952 and 1968 the 'war party' lost 11 percentage points vs. one model due to an unpopular war.
The bottom line - it's way too early, and these models and surveys are way too fuzzy. Things are so bad right now for Bush, that even a little good news (slightly greater stability in Iraq, continued recovery, and October surprises, ie the Saudis turn on the oil taps and Bin Laden is taken out of cryogenic freeze) could mean four more years.
Posted by: Druce Vertes | May 10, 2004 at 10:54 PM