Charting Bush (Continued)

In spite of all of the noise about swift boats, I think this election (and any election wehre there is an incumbent) is going to be much more of a referedum on the current president.

It feels to me like a problem CEO situation. If you've got a CEO who is clearly not getting the job done, then you have to find someone new. You try your best to get someone who is better, but simply making the change is a first step to fixing the problem.

Now I am not saying the GW Bush is not getting the job done. That's a decision for everyone out there to make on their own. But I do think GW's approval polls are the single most important data point to be watching in this race.

And the best place that I know of to go for that data is a history professor at Univ of Minnesota named Steven Ruggles.

This guy takes every poll that is out there, charts them, and then gives you a five day moving average of all the data points. It feels like a much better way to look at the data than relying on any single poll, be it Zogby, CBS/NY Times, NBC/WSJ, etc.

So, back in May, I posted a chart of Bush's approval rating where it looked like a ski slope, all downhill, with a few bumps.

Since then, he's seemed to bottom out. And so, I'll be watching to see if the numbers start going up after the convention and into the fall or if they stay where they are. That's the key to this race in my opinion.

Comments

[Druce Vertes]

Another good one, www.electoral-vote.com

why the election is Kerry's to lose (mostly from Kristof):

Kerry's a little ahead. Undecideds break 2 to 1 against the incumbent. Kerry has 96% of Gore voters. Bush has only 89% of those who voted for him last time. Nader will be less of a factor. New voters demographically lean to Kerry. Turnout will be higher, helping the Democrats.

That being said, if you're al-Quaeda you just have to do something, just to show you're still a factor, never mind the theory they would love a second term to keep inciting the Muslim world.

[Jackson]

Two things I fear. Violence at the RNC turning off potential swingers, and an external threat, not necessarilly Al Queda, could be any thing from Korea to East Timor that GW can use to rally support.

[Tim Houghton]

Good chart I agree but building on ideas from James Surowieki (The Wisdom of Crowds) isn't the best forecast a futures price? If so won't the IOWA Futures Market: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html give the best forecast? This incorporates all the available data not just the approval rating.

Tim

[Jeremiah]

Along the same lines as the IOWA futures market, I track Tradesports election index: www.tradesports.com It shows the same general trends as the polls, although it seems to move ahead of them. They also have state by state contracts.

[rachel b.]

i think that both bush and kerry should be out of the running and every american voter should write dean in for president. aslo, for whoever gets ellected, they should lower the voting age since kids these days learn everything we need to know for an election from the internet and history/government classess anyway. we are more informed than most adults. i also think that the president as of november third should take the us out of iraq.

a conserned american teenager

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