Electoral College (Continued)

Well the two meters on my site are no longer that different and, it turns out, the one the right wingers were calling pro-Kerry has the better numbers for Bush right now.

Electoral-vote.com, the so-called pro-Kerry site, has it 296 for Bush, 238 for Kerry.

Electionprojection.com, the so-called pro-Bush site, has it 285 for Bush, 253 for Kerry.

There are a number of differences and it's too early to be making too big of a deal, but Electionprojection.com has Wisconsin for Kerry and Electoral-vote.com has it for Bush. Colorado and Iowa are also called differently on the two sites.

My friend Jason Chervokas commented on my last post on this topic, saying

Kerry needs a sweep of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan...he needs both Oregon and Washington....and then, assuming he loses Ohio and New Mexico (I think the former is certain, the latter less so), he needs both Florida and Pennsylvannia

Well using the pro-Bush numbers, right now Kerry has that entire mix with the exception of Florida. Is it possible that this election will come down to Florida, just as 2000 did?

Comments

[Chris]

If it does, there will be more lawyers than registered voters in the state of FL - what a nightmare that will be. I've thought all along that unless something changed drastically for the worse in Iraq, Bush would win. I haven't seen any reason the alter that theory. However, regardless of who wins the election, I hope the margin of victory is large enough that the loser has no reason to challenge the election.

[Jason Chervokas]

Fred-

Because FLA is the largest state w/ a closely divided electorate it's going to be decisive again, which is bad news for Kerry since FLA has voted Republican in three of the last four elections (Clinton won there in 1996).

Still, the latest polling has given Kerry some good news. Although post Rep. Convention polls showed him slipping in Ore and WI (though still at the level of statistical ties) other polls show him 9 points ahead in Minn. and 6 points ahead in Michigan.

[jackson]

I'm quite certain it will come down to Fla.

[jackson]

It all depends on The Green Bay/Redskins game. The incumbent goes the way of the Skins.

[Josh Poulson]

Watch out. Election projection is updated weekly, not daily like electoral vote.

--jrp

[Pat]

Fred - why no further mention of Iowa Electronic Markets or Tradesports (which offers state by state betting)? The news there for Kerry is bleak, and basically project a Bush landslide.

Oh, and Jason - FYI if it's a landslide, Florida won't, uh, be decisive.

[Jason Chervokas]

Pat-

Well, there's no reason based on the last election cycle or current polling to suggest a landslide. Doesn't mean it won't be, but I doubt it. At the moment it's looking to me like a replay of 2000, a popular loss and an electoral win for Bush (which suggests a philosophical debate about the tyranny of the minority is in order).

I'm always skeptical about polls for the same reason I'm skeptical about TV ratings (small samples, many people opt out of answering, intended behaviors don't always translate into actual behavior particularly 2 months out), but with the sheer quantity of polling going on in this cycle my guess is that the polls are somewhat telling. That's why I follow the polls on the LA Times site which is not devoted to predicting the race but to reporting the polls. It assigns states when the current polling shows a lead for one candidate or another beyond the MoE, and it leaves unassigned those states where the polling remains inconclusive.

Just as an example of the closeness of the race, the inconclusiveness of the polls, and the dilemma caused by various pollsters with various methods, you can take a look at two polls out of Minnesota this week the one that gave Kerry a 9 point advantage (a lead beyond the MoE) and the one that gave Bush a 2 point advantage w/ 6% undecided (a statistical dead heat since that lead is w/in the MoE).

It's a day to day, nip and tuck race. For today 22 states remain in play. And as I've mentioned, the decisive 7 will be WA, OR, MI, MN, WI, PA, FL. Kerry needs to win all of them in order to capture the White House. All but FL voted for Gore in 2000, four of the 7 have gone Democratic in each of the last 4 elections, of the other three not but FL have voted Republican since 1988.

The evidence therefore seems to suggest that FL will be decisive.