A VC: Charting Bush (Continued)

Charting Bush (Continued)

I love charts. Graphical representations of numbers always tell me things that pure numbers can't. And time based charts - trend lines - are my favorite charts.

I've been watching three charts for the past couple months.

The first is the Iowa Business School Futures Market. This is a real market where real dollars are traded. And this is by far the most volatile of the three charts. It's where you see small trends maginified. It's where you see the biggest movements. This is a market after all.

The second is Bush's approval ratings. There's been very little change on this chart so I am not going to post it right now. This election should be a referendum on the job he's doing. It wasn't that for about a month, after the Republican convention, but it seems the first debate put the campaign back to where it should be and this chart matters alot. Interestingly, the approval numbers are right at 50/50 and have been since the convention.

The third chart is what ultimately matters. The electoral college. This is from the "pro-Kerry" site called electoral-vote.com so take the absolute numbers with a grain of salt, but its the trends I am talking about anyway. These numbers are moving in Kerry's direction too.

I'll be posting these charts every week or so from now until the election. I hope you like them as much as I do.

Comments

IEW only tracks the popular vote, not electoral college. It is extremely difficult to win the Presidency if you don't win the electoral college.

Posted by: Hector | October 11, 2004 at 01:05 AM

This article does a great job of explaining the problems with the Iowa market as an indicator-

http://www.campaigndesk.org/archives/001005.asp

Posted by: Alice Marshall | October 11, 2004 at 04:43 PM

I have been reading your blog for several months now, everything from the MP3s of the week to the now weekly political race. Working in a primarily republican state (Utah) and being involved in the politics of the state I have developed definite political democratic leaning (took me reaching my 30s to do this – my father is a political science professor.)
Your blog has provided me with plenty of ammunition to defend my regular debates with those that are happy in their status quo.
The New Yorker recently had an article that pointed out that the average voter is not voting on the political views but their good feeling of the politician - whether it's the color of his tie or his name or even his demeanor - scary thoughts cocnsidering Kerry's usually speaking to the upper 20% of educated citizens in the country - and Bush brings his good ole boy personality to everything.

Posted by: Ward Spangenberg | October 12, 2004 at 12:58 PM

I was interested to see if the Iowa Electronic Markets were effective in predicting Howard Dean's downfall in the Iowa Caucuses, and I concluded (see http://www.nelson.monkey.org/~nelson/weblog/guestblog/marc/iem-in-iowa.html) that they were not. I think they are probably effective at aggregating common knowledge about candidates in an easily measurable format, but that they are *not* effective at aggregating uncommon knowledge -- for instance, just how Iowans were feeling about Dean and Kerry in January. Even in the Markets' home state.

My hope -- my only hope -- for this election is that voters not normally surveyed for their election opinions (for instance, young voters) will turn out in greater numbers than expected, tipping the balance. I don't think the IEM will have any better predictive power for such a result than any other method. If it's off the radar, the traders don't see it.

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