My Election Dashboard (continued)
I visited my election dashboard sites today.
Something weird is going on at the Iowa Business School Futures Market. They captured the big debate-driven move that Kerry made earlier this month, but now they have a sizable Bush bounce. I don't see that in my other two dashboard sites.
Take a look at Bush's approval ratings. After being sub 50% all year, Bush's approval ratings moved up above 50% in the late summer and held there until the debates. Now they are falling fast and may reach the low point of 45% before the election. That would be bad news for Bush. It's hard to be re-elected when 55% of the country thinks you are doing a bad job.
The electoral college numbers are also looking better for Kerry.
So I am not sure what to make of all this, but if I was trading on the Iowa Business School market right now, I'd be shorting Bush at $0.60 and buying Kerry at $0.40 all day long.
Tradesports also shows a Bush bounce. And anyone can set up a Tradesports account. So, go ahead, go buy Kerry at 41%...
http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_amd.jsp?selConID=11738
Posted by: Nick Denton | October 19, 2004 at 06:56 PM
Guys: please buy as many Kerry contracts as possible. I am doing my best to keep up with demand, but am pretty sure I can sell you as many contracts as you like. Buying Kerry contracts is a great investment and I recommend them to all my Democrat friends.
All the best,
Hector
Posted by: Hector | October 20, 2004 at 12:59 AM
if you haven't seen this open letter signed by many lead economics professors against Bush's policies ...
http://www.openlettertothepresident.org/
Posted by: Henry | October 20, 2004 at 03:08 AM