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Exploding Radio
Jeff Jarvis is wrong in his recent exploding radio post. He says:
This got me wondering about what I would do if I were in Viacom's shoes. I hope they don't pluck the nearest Stern clone. It's hard to call that the "safe" choice but it is; it's the obvious and dull choice. They need to reinvent radio.
But then I thought about the man with the Sirius badge. It's so much easier for him to reinvent radio. And for you, you podcasters, you.
That's the obvious view from the outside looking in. But it's wrong. Radio is re-inventing radio. But they need new technology to do that. They are getting that new technology. It's called HD Radio and its coming.
I believe that next year there will be HD Radios on the market for less than $300. The following year, they should be less than $200. You'll start seeing them in cars, starting at the high end and moving to all cars pretty quickly. You can get this cool Boston Acoustics HD Radio for your office soon.
The radio industry is already rolling out the new digital HD signal and they are going to get more agressive shortly as the new radios hit the market.
This digital platform will do for radio what the digital cable plant is now doing for cable.
Satellite radio is not the next big thing in radio. It's a head fake just like satellite TV was in the TV world. Satellite TV can't do what digital cable can do. And satellite radio can't do what digital radio can do.
Just think about this for a second. HD Radios will be adressable and provide conditional access. That means radio programming can be provided on a subsription basis and the programming and the ads can be targeted. A typical FM station will be able to broadcast at least five audio streams on a given frequency. And you'll have tivo-like store and replay.
It's going to take time for all of this to become a reality. But with this kind of technology platform, the local franchises, and the exisiting base of listeners and advertisers, I wouldn't be writing off broadcast radio so quickly.
I think the broadcasters will be the ones to re-invent radio in the end. If you don't agree, go buy XM and Sirius at 36 to 150 times sales (there are no earnings). If you do, you can buy Clear Channel today at 2 times sales and 11 times EBITDA.
I think I'll take my shot with Clear Channel at those odds.
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Most mornings, I tune in for a few minutes of Imus in the Morning. I'm not a Stern guy, although I applaud his battles with the FCC and his deal with Sirius satellite. Here's my problem - and I'd love [Read More]
Tracked on Dec 6, 2004 2:47:22 PM
Posted November 11, 2004 in Venture Capital and TechnologyComments
What, and lie down with the devil? I'm not sold. It sounds like too much, too big, and no room for the little guy. I want a radio station that doesn't exist, one that is free of restrictions, both from the FCC and Clear Channel, where a DJ can play the records he wants, and say what ever he wants.
Posted by: jackson | Nov 11, 2004 9:43:46 AM
'scuse my ignorance on this subject. But how this different from the DAB project, which appears to be more of a European thing, but has already enabled cheap digital radios to become commonplace over there?
http://www.worlddab.org/index.aspx
Is it just two continents/two systems again, like GSM/CDMA, TDMA etc all over again?
Posted by: Nick | Nov 11, 2004 11:18:45 AM
Your analysis of Jeff Jarvis' opinion is wrong.
HD Radio is a neat technology, but technology isn't radio's problem. Audio quality isn't the problem. It's the complacency of the industry as far as programming is concerned. It's the heavy hand of the FCC that will still exist with HD Radio, that encourages that complacency and drives controversial content off the airwaves.
Cable TV and Satellite radio, being subscription services have the FCC off their backs, content wise.
Nice technology. But it's not going to save radio.
Posted by: Shawn Levasseur | Nov 11, 2004 12:21:55 PM
Coming from somebody who had the temerity to support Gen Wesly Wacko Clark for President, it can't be a surprise that you mutter this nonsense:
"This digital platform will do for radio what the digital cable plant is now doing for cable."
Have you ever invested in the cable business? Apparently NOT.
Digital technology is not helping MSOs, in fact the take rate is a HUGE disappointment.
Bottomline digital technology hurts services providers, by flooding the market with excess capacity, and thus helps consumers (the endpoints) by enabling more choice and lower prices.
Now I know why I stopping reading this blog...
Posted by: Charlie Sierra | Nov 11, 2004 3:29:06 PM
Does it take temerity to support a wacko? Is Clarke a wacko? Does Fred mutter nonesense? The answers to these and other questions on the next 'I Stopping Reading', starring Charlie Sierra as the guy who thinks he knows everything, Fred Wilson as the guy who incites invective from a host of neocons, and me your host Jack 'Jackie Moe Jack' Jackson.
Posted by: jackson | Nov 11, 2004 4:02:34 PM
Sorry, but I have to chime in with a negative here too.
Recall that one of the selling points for relaxing the combo-ownership rules was that revenue from the more popular format streams could be used to support "new, diverse, special-interest stations." Ha-Ha. Didn't happen. Instead we got multiple stations owned by the same company, each playing some subset of the 75 tunes that the national PD thought tested best, each with 20 minutes of commercials per hour, to keep the national SM and stockholders happy. Wow. Guess they fooled me.
So why do you suppose that I might just be slightly cynical when the same guys are back with the same promises that everything's going to be wonderful, just wait. No, the number of program streams isn't the problem, it's the short-sighted venality of the owners. Which is not going to change, no matter how high the tech gets. Sorry.
Posted by: Old Grouch | Nov 11, 2004 4:50:28 PM
I need to check out the radio which comes with satellite systems. This is subscriber radio already. Just hook up my PVR to it and I'll be away with all the choice I need.
HD Radio will simply enable local stations to feed more niche markets. Around here, that will be a station which only offers commodity grain and livestock prices, with ads for ag equipment and chemicals. Another station would be able to have several different talk-radio hosts, which are usually on at the same time spot.
Means the radio stations will have to appeal to niche markets in order to pay for the extra equipment and personnel to do their programs, as well as the programs themselves. Quite an adoption curve for these stations. They might then lease their rights to private groups for their own pitches, as in an infomercial...
Niche markets rule the long tail.
Posted by: Robert C Worstell | Nov 11, 2004 11:48:52 PM
Have to admit confusion here - DirecTV and Echostar are a distraction to Cable TV? Don't they have nearly a third of the market for paid TV subscribers?
Maybe a more reasonable parrallel is the hurt that Cable and Satellite (pay TV) put on Broadcast TV. The broadcasters still haven't figured out how to use their 'HD' options to deliver results.
Posted by: spacey | Nov 12, 2004 11:53:52 AM
What is the demand for HD audio?
I am a professional audio engineer, and largely have been "able" to use HD audio editing and delivery techniques and media for many years. But guess what. There is very little demand for such audio.
The largest nail in HD audio's coffin is MP3. MP3 is so widespread as an acceptable "Digital" format, yet when analyzed is just about the equivalent of a cassette tape after dolby labs came to save the day.
I really dont see any demand for HD audio, espescially in a noisy car rumbling down the road. Espescially if the content is regulated by the FCC. About the only place suitable for listening to HD audio is in a well calibrated room sitting directly in the suite spot. Playing back your favorite music or movie in liquid like 192kHz/24bit audio directly from the computer that recorded the sound to begin with. Compression in almost any format is unacceptable.
Give me something I dont already have (content) and I might get interested.
aka : got my free sirius today ! :-)
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Posted by: maymay | Mar 12, 2005 7:29:57 AM
I've managed to save up roughly $42440 in my bank account, but I'm not sure if I should buy a house or not. Do you think the market is stable or do you think that home prices will decrease by a lot?
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