VC Cliche of the Week

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VC Cliche of the Week

I am going to do something that I may regret.

I am going to mix business and politics to make a point about both.

When I read Bush's comments last night about the war in Iraq, I immediately thought of Bliss McCrum's old cliche about follow-on investing.

"You can't keep doing the same thing and expect different results"

Every time a company runs out of money and comes back to the VCs for more, you have to assess the management on how well they are doing, whether they are accomplishing the results that everyone wants, and whether its worth putting more money in.

We generally want to support our companies and lean very much in that direction. But when the results are not good, we go back to Bliss' cliche about expecting different results. And so many times the price of the new money is not only dilution, but also some material change in direction of the company.

Because you can't keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

And that is my issue with Bush's "stay the course" agenda in Iraq. I personally am well beyond whether this war was a good idea. We are there and we've caused a lot of suffering in Iraq with our forced regime change. At this point, I am not a fan of pulling out. I am a fan of getting the job done.

But you can't keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

Bush and his team need to do some things differently. More troops? A more agressive effort to take on the insurgents? A deal with the neighboring countries?

I honestly have no clue about what they need to do differently, but they've got to try some new stuff.

Because their current approach isn't working too well and the country knows it.

June 29, 2005 Venture Capital and Technology | Comments (23) | TrackBack (4)

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» Good Driving Technique vs Staying the Course from Sacred Cow Dung
Damn it! Fred Wilson beat me to the punch today with yet another one of his great VC Cliches of the Week. Re: Bush Speech last night, Fredastutely related the Bush Lets Keep Doing Everything the Same approac... [Read More]

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Comments

Kinda like banging your head against a wall and expecting it to feel good at some point

Posted by: Josh Kerbel | Jun 29, 2005 9:07:50 AM

Fred - what's not working well in Iraq? How do you define 'working well'? What were/are your expectations?

It's like someone walking into the boardroom and saying, "it's all wrong, things aren't going well. You need to do something different. Everyone knows that's going wrong." But you never explain what you think is wrong, why it's wrong and what your expectations are.

Fred - your post is a cop out. If you are going to make bold statements like that, you need to follow up. But then again, the only solution the Democrats have put forth is destined for failure, so perhaps we shouldn't expect too much.

I give you credit for having the thought of that we should "finish the job", but I have to ask what you think the job is?

Your post is enlightening as to what might happen in the boardroom if you were an investor ... and anyone who might partner with you and your firm is getting some insight as to how you'll be to work with in the future. And you aren't putting forth a very good impression. IMHO.

That said, I enjoy your blog, etc. but I think when you go into political territory, you struggle with the obvious hypocrosy and it shows.

David

Posted by: David | Jun 29, 2005 9:35:23 AM

I think Fred's entire point is that you have to be open to change when things aren't going well.

Posted by: Raj Bala | Jun 29, 2005 9:49:32 AM

Your comments are honest and correct. How refreshing is that! Also thanks for the great quote from Bliss McCrum. It immediately went on my wall. Your blog is a must read for me every morning.

Posted by: Thomas | Jun 29, 2005 9:51:20 AM

I know most of the readers on this blog will dismiss my op here, but there ARE a lot of successes going on in Iraq beyond the ones so often cited by W and other GOP leadership (elections, etc...). Of all of Iraq's providences, only three or four are struggling for stability (the Sunni triangle) and it's a vicious struggle at that. Elsewhere, things are improving, and in other areas, signs of real "normalcy" (Kurdish north, and Basra basin) are present.

I happen to agree with W on his approach here from a military perspective. Training Iraq security and getting them in place is what is turning the tide, but it is a slow turn. Citizens MUST feel safe to offer these scumbag terrorists up, and it is happening, just not as fast as we want it to happen. My military contacts have noted to me that there was a real change in approach to this aspect sometime ago that was largely overlooked when it was implemented. The coalition leadership purged many Iraq army/police recruits from the ranks and tightened the scrutiny on future prospects (cut & runners, and ones with suspect links). This dealt an obvious set back to the overall effort, but according to my guys, the quality of recruit they're training now is much better and more effective. They made the harder right decision and it’s just now paying off.

I'm sure there are a lot of VC clichés that deal with patience and resolve in an investment. It's no secret that post invasion challenges were a surprise to many, but with what we know those to be now, it will simply take time before competent Iraqi security forces are in place and terrorist acts become less frequent in the hot spots.

Our armed services are doing a magnificent job over there. While I share some of your feelings concerning why we went, I’m not a proponent of second guessing what our military is doing to square the situation away. Changing military strategy because us arm chair, rear echelon folks feel that progress is too slow is wrong. This is the message I took from the president last night.

Posted by: Tony Alva | Jun 29, 2005 10:19:30 AM

David, you assume that Fred's position is because he's a Democrat and Bush is a Republican. There are tons of leading Republicans who are saying the same things. Fred is not making a political statement, he's making a statement about his values -- he values the lives of our soldiers,
some of the innocents killed by them, and the lives of those killed by the terroristic tactics of the insurgency. And by the way, David, you come to Lancaster with your army and occupy my town and some of my friends get killed by you or the turncoats in my town who joined you, I'm likely to ambush you too--just like the American patriots who fought the British. Freedom is not freedom when it's delivered at the end of a loaded gun--you'll live free or I'll shoot. Doesn't matter what your intentions are, you've got a gun pointed at me and there are bodies under your feet. Live free or die, buddy.

Fred, you're right, and it's not a political position...it's perfectly reasonable to expect a change in tactics. We are in the board room, David, we've been in this same board room for over two years, and we've watched Bush's plan fail. The borders are uncontrolled, the insurgency has grown, and for every insurgent killed, we've created 3-10 people who hate the US even more and are that much more motivated to impede anything involving us. I dont' care if it's Bush, Clinton, Johnson, or Nixon--when things aren't working, you don't keep doing the same thing over an over and expect different results. We've created a quagmire for the US--if we stay, more kids will die and we won't bring the country to stability. If we leave, radicals will likely take over the country and we'll have another Iran.

There's an answer (though getting rid of the managers is the first step). Bring in the international community, pay for their presence, declare victory and pull out.

There's another take on the cliche: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

Posted by: Charlie Crystle | Jun 29, 2005 10:20:00 AM

If all I did was watch the US media about how the war in Iraq was going, I too would feel that our efforts have resulted in failure. However, I don't watch the US media all that much and I talk to both soldiers and civilians who are over there and what's reported on and what's really happening over there are vastly different.

My issue with Fred's post was that he is making some broad statements about US efforts in Iraq based on hearsay, etc. If you walked into a boardroom with that information, that would be a poor move, especially when making a statement of "this is a failure, we need to do something different".

There's a reason I asked Fred to define his expectations in Iraq. There's a reason I asked Fred to define failure (versus success). I think we need to know that in order to put Fred's opinion into perspective.

Everyone talks about the ~1800 US soldiers killed in the war, but nobody likes to talk about the 13,000 Iraq civilians killed by the insurgents/terrorists. Those "insurgents" killed more bystanders than we have, and yet you put all this blame on the US?

You (Charlie), make it sound like life was just plain peachy before the mean US armed forces waltzed into Iraq and upset everything. Seriously, you need a dose of stark reality as to what Saddam's regime was doing before we stepped in. The hundreds of thousands of people he slaughtered, his support of terrorist activities, etc. The man engaged in GENOCIDE for cripes sake! How do can you possibly IGNORE this?

Your (Charlie) answer to the Iraq war is to bring in the international community?!?! It's their bungling of the situation that lead to us going to war in Iraq in the first place?! Cripes, do you pay any attention to what's going on over there at all? Or does your blinding hatred for Bush make you this way?

Charlie - your little "if you invade my town of Lancaster" comment doesn't make any sense at all. Unless you have a violent dictator who has killed thousands of people, threatens the surrounding communities and oppresses his citizens with fear and death? Perhaps there's something going on in sleepy Landcaster that we all need to know about?

Posted by: David | Jun 29, 2005 10:56:30 AM

"Our armed services are doing a magnificent job over there. While I share some of your feelings concerning why we went, I’m not a proponent of second guessing what our military is doing to square the situation away. Changing military strategy because us arm chair, rear echelon folks feel that progress is too slow is wrong. This is the message I took from the president last night."

Per Tony Alva:

Agreed. The military is doing well, especially under the circumstances, and needed changes in this situation shouldn't focus on military strategy.

Civilian leadership, on the other hand, has been worse than useless throughout the process. I believe that was the point of Fred's post. If the current crowd in the civilian leadership can't change, then new civilian management should be brought in.

The Administration ignored sage advice from, then lost, the guys with real background in this area, namely a successful career general with experience in large campaigns and a Vietnam era 3 tour Navy Seal with a wealth of diplomatic experience (Powell and Armitage). Their relative success in dealing with the India / Pakistan theater (which they were basically allowed to run) is a notable exception to the fecklessness demonstrated in the arenas where the Defense / Cheney axis has held sway.

It's the unwillingness of this Administration to suffer the reality dose (and lack of 'yes man' philosphy) of a Powell or Armitage that underlies our ongoing failure. Want a start? Fire Rumsfeld and his little entourage, lower Cheney's profile and charter, and ask Armitage to come in as Secretary of Defense. Give him some real clout in pushing through the next stage, whatever that might be. We're in for tough times, but some real leadership would be a start, and it's not unreasonable for us to ask for it.

They'll never do it, because they won't admit their errors, and won't allow anybody with that level of independence inside the inner circle, especially if it would mean listening to some bad news / reality.

Posted by: bskeels | Jun 29, 2005 11:25:22 AM

David, you seem to assume that your perspective is the only valid one, and that I and others have no insights into Iraq, or that your anecdotal conversations constitute truth. In any of these posts, there are going to be deliberate omissions--it's to be expected.

So I won't fault you for ignoring the tens of thousands of Iraqis who died as a result of the war. Or that there is no link between 9/11 and Hussein, though there is a link between the newterrorist activity in Iraq and our presence there. Or that Rumsfeld supplied arms to Hussein in the 80's. Or that Reagan backed the wrong horse in the Iraq-Iran war, and shouldn't have been involved at all. Or that the international community isn't hated to the degree that the US is, and that our interest is in a secure iraq, not particularly in a democratic or US-secured Iraq.

Or your decision not to mention the over 10,000 men and women maimed by the war, which was sold to us on false pretenses. There's so much more, of course.

Using your logic--and the neo-cons'--we should invade China. Today. Why? China is run by a totalitarian government that has killed thousands of its own citizens, executes democracy advocates and imprisons religious leaders (Christians, among others). China has weapons of mass destruction and is buying large stockpiles of weapons from former Soviet states (which , btw, are very likely to be selling weapons grade uranium and plutonium to pay the heating bill), using the money they've made through illegal trade activity that's put millions of Americans out of work and makes up 1/4 of our trade deficit, which, by the way, has doubled in the past 4 years and represents the largest shift of wealth and economic activity outside of this country--ever.

But hey, prices at Wal-mart are low and China buys a lot of oil (and apparently oil companies too) so what the hell. Screw the Chinese people, let's go after Iraq.

It's a flawed foreign policy that can't be applied uniformly worldwide--and won't be. Because it's not about principle. If it were, we'd go after every undemocratic country, and we won't of course. It's not about democracy, and it never was.

Posted by: Charlie Crystle | Jun 29, 2005 12:21:38 PM

Regrets yet, Fred?

Posted by: Charlie Crystle | Jun 29, 2005 12:42:27 PM

It sounds to me like all the best qulified military strategists are sitting around reading Fred's blog. I know all you hawks are quite convinced you are right, so go do something about it, go kill some arabs in the name of Bush and Oil. Makes me sick....Great talkers, little doers.

Posted by: jackson | Jun 29, 2005 4:39:59 PM

Jackson - welcome to the ranks of the "talkers and little doers!" ;-)

Charlie wrote "It's not about democracy, and it never was."

Who said it was? I didn't. We went to Iraq because Saddam was aiding terrorists, defying the UN resolutions since the last war and refusing to cooperate with us and the UN on the state of their weapons programs. Saddam could still be in power, enjoying the money and the girls if he stepped in line and cooperated. Even an insane moron would take being in power over not, or worse, being dead.

We went to war in Kuwait to protect Saudi and the rest of the middle east. Sure, oil was involved, but aside from any corporate connections, everyone in the US has a vested interest in low oil prices. In the end, Kuwiat was liberated, Saddam pushed back into his little sandbox, and what did we ask for all of our hard work? Not much as far as I can see. I think we should have taken x% of their oil production for the next y years. But what does it matter since the liberal environmentalists won't let us build any more oil refineries in this country so bringing in more oil won't really solve anything on this end.

The only folks who I can tell have benefited from the oil in the middle east has been the UN with their little 'oil for food' fiasco... oh yea, the Russians, French and Germans were wrapped up in that too... Hmmm, didn't they oppose the war... I wonder why... ?? ;-)

At the end of the day, I don't think I have a monopoly on right or wrong, nor did I ever say that I did. I enjoy political conversation - it's what makes this country great. I could easily engage in a face to face discussion where we'll never agree on each other's position, but in the end, I'd still go out and buy ya a beer and drink with you. I don't hate anyone for their viewpoints - if you represent your opinion well I should end up respecting you for it, not resenting where you stand.

Back to my original points - what were Fred's definitions of 'failure' in Iraq? What were his expectations? I've never been answered by anyone on those questions.

Posted by: David | Jun 29, 2005 6:20:32 PM

if history is any guide at all, the iraq war is still very new and young. its way too early to judge anything. folks, we still have troops in japan. 60 years after they surrendered. 64 years after pearl harbor. and we directly ruled japan thru martial law for many years after the surrender. etc.

if you want instant gratification, stick to your blackberries and ipods and blogs. substantive politics and military conflict and human history obviously don't move fast enough. you can't just change the channel.

Posted by: steve | Jun 29, 2005 7:53:58 PM

Are all environmentalists liberal?

Your man Bush says it's about democracy and freedom, and you're endorsing Bush's policies (or lack thereof).

My expectations (not Fred's) were 1)that we we do not wage ware unilaterally, and we did, and please don't give me the crap about a coalition when the number 2 country in the coalition was Poland 2) once we invaded and won we would secure the borders, restore services like electricity, water, etc, 3) set a plan for success, which we can debate but I'm sure you would agree that it involves a secure Iraq and a withdrawal of US troops, and 4) not to have been lied to in order to get approval for this war. Bush lied, soldiers died. Tell me, please, that you don't think it's appropriate that Bush lied. So did Rummy, so did Cheney, so did Powell. Please tell me you don't think Bush lying to get what he wants is a good thing for the country, and the the ends justify the means. I'll take Clinton lying about sex over Bush lying about (take your pick) threats. I lived in NY during 9/11, lost 11 neighbors and 1 friend. I find it insulting that he continues to represent a tie between Hussein and the 9/11 attack. His own analysts disavow that.

Club soda, David.

Posted by: Charlie Crystle | Jun 29, 2005 8:01:38 PM

Err... Doesn't Einstein get credit for the quote?

Posted by: Christy | Jun 29, 2005 9:05:38 PM

Fred's premise is a similar one that I use in my business: Assume that past performance is an indication of future performance unless something changes.

Anyone who doesn't get that probably just doesn't get strategy.

By the way, Bush doesn't get strategy. Strategy is nothing more than just deciding what to do based on an honest assessment of circumstances. If you think his policies are based on an honest assessment of circumstances (Iraq war, social security, etc.) then you aren't being honest with your analysis.

This is not about partisanship. I'll apply this sort of criticism to any leaders in government or business. I remember saying the same thing when I heard Bethune from Continental a couple of years ago saying how he didn't think he needed to fundamentally change his airline's business model because the industry hadn't changed, they were just in an economic downturn and biz travelers would be back paying full biz fares after the recession ended. Or Fiorina at HP: "Merging with Compaq will enable us to beat Dell!"

How to Succeed in Life and Business:

1. Honestly analyze your internal and external circumstances. Most leaders fail at this (it is, to be honest, hard to do this well all the time – we all believe our own bullshit too much).

2. Decide what to do based on that assessment. Most leaders fail at this too. They may get the assessment correct (Dell is beating us) and then do something that isn’t pragmatic or won't address the assessment (merge with Compaq, keep the legacy airline business model, stay the course in a war in which the data trends are getting worse).

3. Do what you said you were going to do until you realize that (a) you were wrong or (b) circumstances have changed. This is called discipline; most leaders fail at this also (they lurch when things get difficult). Double down on successful strategies. Change failing strategies.

Many politicians suck at this, but Bush seems to be particularly bad. Legacy airline carriers leaders too.

Posted by: Paul Lightfoot | Jun 30, 2005 8:04:19 AM

Lightfoot, I agree with you (and Fred) wholeheartedly on this. How are you by the way? Long time.

P.S. Indeed, Fred, that isn't "Bliss McCrum's old cliche about follow-on investing", but Einstein's definition of insanity: "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Posted by: Jonathan | Jun 30, 2005 8:23:33 AM

Mr. Lightfoot:

Good post. Wouldn't you agree that firing Rumsfeld and putting in, say, Armitage with full charter would stand a very good chance of accomplishing that?

Posted by: bskeels | Jun 30, 2005 9:37:59 AM

Mr. Lightfoot:

Good post. Wouldn't you agree that firing Rumsfeld and putting in, say, Armitage with full charter would stand a very good chance of accomplishing that?

Posted by: bskeels | Jun 30, 2005 9:53:33 AM

Great Post Fred & Paul,

What gets to me though is that this criticism is levied at the leader who repetitvely makes poor decisions and not where it belongs - i.e. with the voters who put him there - or, in business, with the investors who like lemmings typically throw good money after bad.

Bush is a sad sorry excuse for a leader in any sphere - he merely rose way above his personal incompetence.

The truth in your post is that his incompetence isn't going to change through 'coaching' his leadership style or giving him the opportunity to get more mistakes "under his belt" - it will ONLY change through replacing the rotten head on the fish.

It's comical how much party politics blinds US voters to the truth. I don't blame Bush for staying the course - that's the mandate WE gave him. "Stay the course" is not a "Bush" strategy, it's a National trait - we stayed the course with Bush, so "by golly", he's going to stay the course with Iraq - it's quite simple.

We, the people, had our chance to change course, and we screwed it up, royally. How much damage will 8 years do? Aint it a pity we won't be able to re-elect that nice boy, George W. to fix this mess we're currently in. 2008 is going to be a difficult year for US - we're going to have to change course and think about our vote.

2000-2004 - Shame on Bush.
2004-2008 - Shame on US.

Posted by: David G | Jun 30, 2005 11:31:27 AM

Well stated David, Jackson take note please...

Posted by: Tony Alva | Jul 1, 2005 8:54:41 AM

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