Chill Out Guys

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Chill Out Guys

Jason Calacanis was in a huge twit about the Comscore blog numbers I posted about on Tuesday.

And Jeff Jarvis took a pot shot at the "panel research" methodology that Comscore used to compile the data.

First, I'd like to suggest that everyone chill out about these numbers.

They are the first attempt by a leading Internet measurement firm to measure the blog world. As I said in my post:

There are some questionable stats in this report. Gizmodo over Engadget? Defamer over Boing Boing? I have my doubts about some of the blog specific data ...

Jarvis says that panel research is "messed up" and goes on to say:

This is the method used by Nielsen et al to measure TV and radio and print readership — affecting billions of ad dollars — and it is and always has been relative bullshit. That’s why advertisers buy it, though — because it is relative, because they can compare this magazine to that magazine on the same sheet. But it’s all based on a small and only allegedly representative sample of people. It’s meaningless.

Jeff is so wrong about this that I find myself shaking my head on this one.

First, the problem with panel research of old is small sample sizes. The panels that have been used for decades in old media are almost always less than 100,000 people primarily because it is cost prohibitive to collect data from a larger panel. Clearly that is way too small for accurate measurement.

But Comscore invented the concept of a "megapanel" in 1999 and is currently measuring over 2 million unique Internet users. That's the beauty of the Internet, you can measure online at a scale unimaginable offline. At that kind of scale, panel research is not only accurate, its amazingly accurate. As far back as 2001, Comscore was able to predict a missed quarter for Amazon.com. And the panel size and the technology have improved significantly since then.

The issue with panel research is you need time to develop the statistical algorithms that weight the panel data correctly before you scale the numbers. And you need a very good dictionary of the domains you track. These take time to nail down. Clearly Comscore hasn't nailed it yet, but they never said they had.

When viewed as a first attempt at measuring the blog world with a rigourous methodology, this report is impressive and as I said in my post:

But that's where Comscore is really strong. They'll take the feedback they get from this report and drill down and eventually they'll nail it.

Now on to Jason. When he stops hyperventilating about the flaws in the analysis of specific blogs, he should go read the front of the report.

Everything he's bitching about was fully disclosed up front and the idea that Comscore can be "bought" is so laughable that it makes Jason look silly.

Jason gives Comscore some advice in his lastest riff on the report. And some of it is good, like starting a blog. So I'll return the favor and give Jason some advice:

Chill out, stop yelling at people and throwing around crazy accusations
Calmly suggest Comscore some ways to improve the methodology
Share your server logs with them so they can figure out what's wrong
Make friends not enemies

The blog world needs good numbers. Comscore is going to give them to us. We'll just have to be patient while they figure all this stuff out.

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Posted August 11, 2005 in Venture Capital and Technology

Comments

Fred,

Yesterday you were saying you didn't believe the numbers... now you're saying Jeff and I need to chill out?!?!?! Why the change in position?

I know you own the company and are involved in it, but you shouldn't be telling *us* to chill out you should be telling *them* (the guys at Comscore) that they screwed up big time and they need to come clean with the blogosphere.

Does transparency apply to me, you, and Jeff but not the stat company that is releasing the data that advertisers will use to make decisions with? Do you know how damaging this is to my business?

This is my livelihood here... I'm not going to chill out if someone damages it. I represent 105 bloggers who are making a significant portion of their living from blogging. People are paying their mortgages/rent/etc with their blogger payments, so forgive me if I don't "chill out."

I like your suggestion of working with them.... I tried that a year ago and they shut me down!!!

Here is how this went down:

1. I told them the data was wrong *last* year when they showed it to me. They had Slashdot below Gawker, Engadget, and Gizmodo for Q3 2004. I told them that was a joke and they agreed! They said they were going to "fix" that.

2. I told them if they released this data the blogosphere would laugh them out of town--which they have (with you being the first to laugh at the results yesterday!).

3. I asked them to be involved with the report ALMOST A YEAR AGO and they never got back to me--even after I told them the data was wrong!

4. I was told yesterday that they considered getting us involved and Nick Denton didn't want me involved. They explained that since they already got the money they needed for the report from the "low hanging fruit" (Rick's friends at Gawker and they company that provides Nick with his software SixApart) they didn't need to get anyone else involved. Rick told me clearly yesterday that Nick did not want me involved and that he was the sponsor so that was the end of the discussion.

5. I tried to talk to their PR person two days ago and they hung up the phone on me.

6. It's now day three and they have not responded or released the data.

So, I tried what you're talking about already and it failed.

If Comscore wants respect from me--or other bloggers--they should:

a) release the data (wouldn't you like to see it?)

b) take ownership of the fact that their data is totally off and ask the blogosphere to work with them to make it better (they "fixed" Nick's data... shouldn't everyone have the ability to have their data fixed?!)

c) take ownership of the fact that that this report executed on horribly, and a promise that future reports will be done in an open fashion.

We've none each other for a long time Fred. I respect the fact that you're trying to defend you camp. However, in this case I'm 100% correct and I don't appreciate you trying to spin this as me being "silly."

If anyone looks silly it's you. You said yesterday you thought the data was wrong... and it's your company! Now you're telling Jeff and I that we need to chill out?!

Come on.

I'm not going to drop this until the complete data is released for everyone to examine and to make it better.

I'm all about growing the blogosphere. I've spend the last 18 months doing so. I would have helped pay for the report and I would have promoted the heck out of it--IF YOUR GUYS HAD NOT BLOCKED ME FROM BEING INVOLVED!

IF you want to help the blogosphere and your investment in Comscore you should tell them to release the data and do a new report that includes Blogger, Xanga, Weblogs, Inc., and the 20-50 other major blogging companies.

Jason

Posted by: Jason | Aug 11, 2005 1:39:12 PM

Maybe Jason could benefit from a visit to my Jamaican Herbalist freind. Shit, the only way I could make money with my blog is if people paid me not to post. Blood-pressure is a killer dude.

Posted by: jackson | Aug 11, 2005 1:51:45 PM

for what it's worth, this haiku ...

Opinion'ated ...

The Greatest Bloggers
Have to Have an Opinion
But are not 'ated

Posted here ... http://poductivity.blogspot.com/2005/07/web-20575-opinionated.html

Peace

Posted by: David Gibbons | Aug 11, 2005 1:56:23 PM

Thank God it's only the Internet. I have a great idea..why don't you, Jason, make up some 'tech' sounding company, like, how about, Techniche. Techline. Techbits. Techcom. Comjuice.

Then, be like, "To show you the Internet has progressed, blahblah, advertisers, blah blah, here are the numbers." Then just go into Photoshop and make yourself up a chart, putting your blogs higher than Matt Drudge. Don't include any of Nick Denton's empire of devils.

What happened to the good old days when people all helped out fixing up the village as a team. Are you to good to help out your fellow Man now that you're all Internet auteurs? It's like the goddamn roman senate up in this bitch. Except most of you live with your parents.

Posted by: White rich thin blog reader | Aug 11, 2005 4:21:05 PM

Comscore is great when used for directional purposes. Their use of a megapanel likely improves the quality of third-party surveying significantly. That said, most publishers will tell you that there are always discrepancies between the traffic #s reported by Comscore and the #s reported by by their logs. Alexa is not very accurate and media planners rarely use it.

Accurate third-party #s are important to the ad industry for generic presentation purposes but they aren't SO important. Most buyers go off of #s reported by the publishers themselves, select the important frontrunners, and then negotiate off CPM/impressions per placement. Whoever puts together the best deals, wins. So if a report says that Gizmodo is bigger than Engadget, the media buyer would still send an RFP to Engadget and Gizmodo.

Perhaps Comscore should release a product similar to SiteMeter where all blogs can insert some HTML code and it would track all traffic to each blog in a transparent, unbiased way. It's probably not in Comscore's business model to enable data to be transparent BUT it would likely provide significantly more accurate data than something based on a panel.

If WIN cares so much about transparency, perhaps it should put some SiteMeter code on its page and let is be available to everyone. Gawker already does it so that would give everyone transparent, head-to-head info.

Noah

Posted by: Noah Robinson | Aug 11, 2005 4:58:28 PM

You know what we need here?

A third opinion.

It'd have to be someone who isn't directly attached to the circumstances at hand.

Jason has reason to be ticked off (I was and our site's daily vistors are a rounding error for Calacanis and Co) since hes Chairman of a company that Denton sabotaged and excluded from a very significant report.

Fred is more sagacious than Jason, but again, conflict of interest.

Fred's firm funded comScore media matrix.

While Fred will nibble at the report's problems, he'd be an idiot to go at loggerheads with the company and bash them on the head like they need to be.

So we need someone more in tune to this entire ordeal than myself to post a nonpartisan view.

Funny thing about this?

Denton is right now sitting back in his leather chair on Spring street laughing his heart away...

Ha Ha Ha goes the Gawker Monster.

Posted by: Catablast! Media | Aug 11, 2005 5:03:24 PM

Okay, a couple of things here:

1. I think the reactions against Jason are not reactions saying he's necessarily wrong. They are reactions against the hyperbole. Jason is saying this survey is "incredibly damaging" to his business and his bloggers? I don't think so. As I said on Jason's blog, "Scoreboard baby". The scoreboard is not a survey by Comscore. The scoreboard is audited site traffic converted into ad revenue. That is a game that can be won with or without Comscore, so yes, chill out and concentrate on the real scoreboard. For the amount of traffic and revenue you claim to be generating, Jason, you're already winning the game.

2. If a company like Comscore wants to be respected as a legitimate source of industry data, they should think twice about accepting funding and/or assistance from publishers who clearly stand to gain from these surveys. If you provide *good data*, people will pay you for the privilege of viewing it. There's no reason to change that model... it's worked (even on the internet) for a long time now.

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