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eBay and Skype?
First of all, let me say that I love Skype.
Now that I've gotten rid of AIM and Yahoo Messenger, I have only two IM clients on my desktop, Trillian and Skype. If everyone had a Skype account, I'd have only one and it would be Skype.
As Lucinda said in her comment to my Goodbye AIM post yesterday:
the ability to go to talking instantly and to conference is great. and the quality is better than on my vonage line.
Yes, Skype is awesome and everyone should get it. Skype is also a great way to do a group podcast over a long distance.
But why does eBay want to own Skype?
Forget for a second the rumored price of $2bn to $3bn.
What's in it for eBay?
This quote is from the Wall Street Journal's story on the rumored deal:
Skype offers the Internet auctioneer a thriving e-commerce business that benefits from so-called network effect, which is a good or service that has value to a potential customer based on the number of customers who already own that good or use that service, said this person familiar with the matter.
Yeah, so what? I still don't see the synergy in the deal for eBay.
Back to the purchase price. I think Skype is a bargain at $2bn to $3bn. I think everyone should use Skype and I think it will be on every kind of communication device over time - cellphones, PDAs, etc.
I think Skype could be the ultimate phone company of the 21st century.
So owning Skype makes sense. But I am not sure why it makes more sense to eBay than Verizon or BellSouth. If Skype went public, I'd certainly want to own some shares.
Maybe some of my readers get this. If so, help me out. Let me know why you think eBay should own Skype.
September 8, 2005 in Venture Capital and Technology | Permalink
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Comments
I'm pulling this out of my butt, but could it facilitate communication among sellers? That didn't convince me either.
Posted by: Abby | Sep 8, 2005 7:02:08 AM
Fred -- think of eBay as the 'Yellow Pages'. Then this starts making sense.
Posted by: billg | Sep 8, 2005 7:32:10 AM
On the surface the deal makes no sense - its an admission by EBAY mgmt that their core biz (auctions) is under major competitive threat and that they dont believe the moodel is sustainable on its own going forward. its kind of like ORCL to me - ORCL said they dont see organic growth continuing, so they took all their cash and bought a bunch of different co's in similar space and now trying to bunch it. EBAY/Skype isnt as clean as ORCL, and EBAY stock should get hit near term, but it sounds like this is just beginning of move for EBAY to start using their cash to make acquisitions so that in 3-5-7yrs EBAY will be a different company with multiple business lines. Also, Skype is a service, not a business. So I think this is just the start for EBAY - welcome to the M+A game.
Posted by: oliver | Sep 8, 2005 8:26:02 AM
If Oliver is right - and he may be - then it's a silly move for ebay. Let's see... we don't expect to perform well in the business we know how to run, so let's buy some businesses we don't know how to run...
Posted by: Andrew | Sep 8, 2005 9:07:57 AM
I think its a smart move for ebay (devil's advocate). Ebay has made itsself a leader in peer to peer sales. What on earth would a peer to peer seller want a telephone for? How about the offering of services rather than products? I could see it happening. Especially with a name like Ebay that already has the audience of people who would like nothing more than to be able to do everything via ebay (my mom).
Posted by: Justin Lilly | Sep 8, 2005 9:22:41 AM
I think Oliver, Abby, and billg are the right track. My guess is that eBay is taking a page out of the Jack Welch playbook and redefining their market to fuel growth. Combine Skype, PayPal, and eBay, and now you have a way to drive auctions and other transactions. The Skype UI is plain right now, but it's easy to envision it looking more like a Yahoo Messenger window, with eBay auction alerts popping up, a PayPal button to buy Skype minutes and ring tones, etc., etc. Now you can offer buyers and sellers to talk for free after an auction is completed.
Some people won't like a cluttered Skype window. But if they do it right, it can be a good conduit for all sorts of content flow to eBay/Skype/PayPal customers..."Yellow Pages" is a good example of this.
Posted by: Carlos N Velez | Sep 8, 2005 9:31:09 AM
Taking the 'Yellow Pages' concept one step farther:
Combine eBay's concept of 'trusted referrals' (buyers reviewing sellers) with Skype's 'buddy list'. With this in place, its possible for me to link purchases I'm contemplating with people I know. That's a powerful concept.
Posted by: billg | Sep 8, 2005 9:47:05 AM
eBay can use Skype to get into the pay-per-call biz for their community of buyers and sellers.
Posted by: Robert Young | Sep 8, 2005 9:48:22 AM
Actually, the other thing to mention about Skype is their potential P2P payment system. Sype Pay ( http://www.connectotel.com/skype/skypepaymentapi.pdf ) is a potentially powerful application when combined with PayPal.
Additionally, eBay's community focus - seen not just in their core product, but even in their choice of comparison shopping engine (which brought them ePinions), does seem to lend some credence to the eBay-Skype rumor.
All that being said, I'm still not sure I understand the deal enough to believe the talk is serious.
Posted by: Arul Sundaram | Sep 8, 2005 10:19:53 AM
I think ebay will use Skype to enable distributed commerce, the way www.jittery.com is using Blogpoint.
Posted by: Rob | Sep 8, 2005 11:45:12 AM
simple:
- ebay is a P2P transaction platform - not in the technical sense, but in the "P2P production" sense.
- skype is a P2P collaboration platform that is working towards becoming a global P2P payment gateway
- the marriage allows ebay to move transactions off their infrastructure and onto a free infrastructure
- the functionality takes the conversation in the marketplace off text and into the real-time voice realm
Looks like a home-run to me ...
Posted by: David Gibbons | Sep 8, 2005 11:58:03 AM
FYI - here's a proposal that illustrates how easily skype will move into the P2P payment space ...
http://www.connectotel.com/skype/skypepaymentapi.pdf
Posted by: David Gibbons | Sep 8, 2005 12:05:26 PM
Online, real-time auctions? I know some horse auctions allow people to watch and bid online. I guess you could do the same with cars, artwork, or other properties.
Posted by: nash | Sep 8, 2005 12:17:47 PM
Its actually quite simple folks. The big players on the web are GOOG, YHOO and EBAY. GOOG and YHOO have voip services. Instead of building voip users organically, EBAY (in its own tradition) will acquire good technology and a very large user base (Skype).
It actually makes perfect sense to me.
Remember, its got a lot to do with eyeballs and traffic folks. Was it a logical extention of thought for EBAY to acquire Shopping.com? Not at first. But when you think about eyeballs and traffic, it does. AND, that Shopping.com has/had one of the best keyword/ad optimizing technology around.
This will happen folks. Mark my words.
Posted by: Isaac Garcia | Sep 8, 2005 12:42:34 PM
Ebay could use some sort of always on customer facing application other than the browser. Instant alerts about new auction bids, the opportunity to hear someone talk in audio about what they are selling, the opportunity to cheaply distribute video about what they are selling, could all be useful. What are the criteria for such a consumer facing application? It would be beneficial for it to have viral growth, and network effects, not just on the PC but on future versions of cell phones. You could easily imagine someone creating a P2P version of ebay, rather than being limited to just the website interface. Perhaps ebay wants to build that first, and realized cash is relatively cheap versus buying an established network. If there is one thing ebay should be in a position to respect, it must be a rapidly growing network with network effects.
Posted by: Ranjit Mathoda | Sep 8, 2005 12:57:59 PM
Coming back to this - I think eBay is buying Paypal's biggest potential competitor.
Isaac: eardrums <> eyeballs
Posted by: David Gibbons | Sep 8, 2005 2:09:15 PM
All the points are decent except for the rationale that Skype is the way to get in. Why not go SIPPhone for essentially $0.00? Skype, with it's closed and central architecture has clearly peaked and isn't worth remotely multi-billions.
Posted by: JD | Sep 8, 2005 6:41:01 PM
In my opinion, this borders on "style drift." I see the possible benefits, but it seems like a long-shot.
Posted by: Raj Bala | Sep 8, 2005 6:58:59 PM
skype = sky high + hype?
Posted by: steve | Sep 8, 2005 8:47:05 PM
Given a different lense and way of looking at things, I think this would be a brilliant move by eBay. At its core, eBay is a person to person platform for:
- eCommerce (eBay)
- local commerce (craigslist / kijiji)
- payments (PayPal)
and in the future
- communications (Skype)
- services
it also gets them into new markets where communication is absolutely essential. Think pay-per-call vs. pay-per-click.
Skype has a brand, network effects, and is the leader. This is the single best strategic move eBay could have made. Brilliant but also extremely gutsy!
Mike
Posted by: Mike | Sep 8, 2005 8:47:20 PM
It would be a mistake for Skype to sell out to ebay at this price - they definitely have better options. They have a revenue model ppl understand. they will go for an IPO.
Posted by: TP | Sep 8, 2005 9:36:45 PM
I agree with TP. Skype has huge potential - especially when you think about skypepaymentapi that David Gibbons mentioned. Their earnings could be huge.
This makes me agree with Ranjit Mathoda. Ebay is buying paypal's biggest competitor.
However, I don't think Ebay is buying them simply to kill skype. They will incorporate paypal with Skype, as well as many other features to making the auctioning experience all the much better, more exciting, and more convenient.
However 2, I don't see Ebay pursuing the voip telephone service in terms of calls to other phones. I think they would turn it into a predominantly internal tool for their auctions. Competitors like Voip Buster are going to take the lead on calls to telephones.
Posted by: Scott | Sep 8, 2005 10:44:02 PM
I dunno. Synergy in this case has to be driven by revenue increases to eBay or Skype. This doesn't look like a cost reduction play. I'm not sure how phone calls drive peer-to-peer sales of products. Surely supports the model, but seems like a low leverage point. As for peer-to-peer sales driving phone calls, that is probably a limited synergy too for the few million heads that Skype has. As for eBay getting some synergy with services markets and having the Skype market support that, that could be, but then eBay doesn't need Skype to get into the services market. I suppose synergy could be viewed slightly differently that the Skype becomes part of the fabric for a commerce and communication platform and that worse case is that you have two good companies with no real synergies. So long as one doesn't pay too much, that could be the play.
Posted by: Steve Shu | Sep 8, 2005 11:08:42 PM
Well, in itself, it's not such a bad idea to buy skype, if it can be executed well. eBay's problem is that it's been marginalized by google and yahoo in terms of traffic, so it has to spend a lot of money on search engines to drive traffic, and it just gets more expensive going forward. having something like Skype to drive traffic is not bad, if the price is not too high. Internet is evolving still, so nobody can tell how significant VOIP will become in the future, speding 4-5% of market cap to hedge the risk is not too bad.
that being said, I think it's a lousy move by eBay. buying Skype will be a big divertion of management attention from the battle they have to win: China. I don't have data of Skype user base in China to tell whether it will help eBay win China market. I think eBay could benefit more by buying Tencent, which has a dominant IM application in China. It is a lot cheaper to buy as well.
Posted by: Sean | Sep 8, 2005 11:15:41 PM
A growing area for eBay is store fronts. I think Skype might offer a really nice way for buyers and sellers to communicate quickly about products thus allowing for more sales.
Posted by: Rick Stratton | Sep 8, 2005 11:16:51 PM
It will provide a toll free international number to superstore ebay. You liked some product click an icon next to the product and get talking with some customer support agent.
Skype can provides an addon like a intelligent call center kinda call routing system for global support.
Posted by: Ruchit | Sep 8, 2005 11:44:02 PM
as for skypes user base in china: it might soon be zero, as china telecom is apparently starting to block it:
http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/afx/2005/09/08/afx2214918.html
Posted by: sushi | Sep 9, 2005 4:39:03 AM
Sushi,
More here too:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2005/09/08/183095/VoIP_calls_may_be_banned.htm
From #3 market to ...?
In everyone's style drift into the China market, these kind of stories can be a bit of fly in the proverbial ointment.
Posted by: Calvin | Sep 9, 2005 8:34:42 AM
People, this has nothing to do with Ebay's auction business. Ebay is clearly responding to the growing threat from Google by diversifying into internet telephony- "the next big thing". [plug]more here[/plug]
Posted by: Manu Sharma | Sep 9, 2005 9:01:52 AM
For everyone who thinks this is a good idea, replace "Skype" with "SIP" and then replace "$3 billion" with "$0".
Posted by: JD | Sep 9, 2005 12:06:12 PM
I think I would have to agree with nash...there are 3 reasons why I think this would make sense.
1. Competition. All of the big players are beginning to look more and more alike, and as they grow they will attpempt to encroach on other players' domain...Yahoo, MS, Google, Newscorp, AOL.
As google continues to improve froogle, and theer rumored gwallet payment service, ebay will eventually be forced to diversify.
Skype would be the first step in this diversification.
2. Payment. Additionally, I have read about major payment and account issues for skype. Tying paypal directly into this would alleviate alot of those problems, and with their new micropayment strategy they could sell small amounts of minutes and make it profitable.
3. Audience. I don't think that ebay sellers will talk to buyers or vice versa, but ebay customers are very cost conscious looking to save money. Ebay also services alot of small businesses who are looking to save money. This is a perfect fit for this type of audience.
Posted by: David | Sep 9, 2005 12:06:55 PM
I say get Skype out of your computer. It is like a virus, uses your bandwidth and memory for other users communication. How can you call this a good technology? If there is anything far beyond Skype it is Wavigo or Gizmo (using SIP). Any user who learn about Skypes article #4 in EULA (license ) which says: Permission to utilize your computer, i bet smart people will get rid of Skype very fast. The rest of users will eventually learn what that means for them and their computer.
Posted by: edasx | Sep 10, 2005 11:47:37 AM
a couple folks above have already said it, but the explanation of the 'why it makes sense' is very straightforward:
- eBay monetizes user traffic easily with existing offerings
- more user traffic = more transactions = more revenue
for *ANY* decent-size portal, 'free' services that engage users to return more frequently / spend more time on site tend to increase monetization.
given that eBay can also take advantage of Skypes services for buyer-seller communication, existing large userbase, and viral growth, i don't see why anyone has trouble understanding this deal.
NOW, you might question how MUCH eBay would be willing to pay for Skype, but it certainly isn't a stretch of logic.
---
continuing this thought process even further, it would make even MORE sense for eBay to purchase / partner / private-label a hosted email service, and give it away to its customers (like Gmail, Hotmail, Yahoomail, etc).
in addition to the 'more eyeballs / more traffic / more transactions' argument, having an email product would enable eBay to reduce email fraud by encouraging users to move their primary email service to eBay. if eBay was able to move any significant percentage of its buyer-seller transactions to a closed-loop email system (or even only 1/2 of the txn), they could easily cut down on fraud in the system -- one of the biggest areas of cost for eBay and PayPal.
(full disclosure: i used to work at PayPal).
- dave mcclure
www.simplyhired.com
Posted by: Dave McClure | Sep 10, 2005 12:25:34 PM
Ok, so I was wrong. Ebay is buying Skype for the most apparent reason. $4.1 Billion to allow it's users talk to each other? $4.1 BILLION?? Will this really add much value over the traditional means of communication on ebay?
Voip now requres another level of coordination to really work. Will I be available at the same time that the person has a question. Are ebay's users sophisticated enough to download another im/voip client and use it regularly. Will users even want to talk to someone that they have never met? They are not professional sales people, nor are they customer service reps. Not even AMAZON.COM wants to talk to their customers, why would Joe widget seller in Idahoe?
I have argued this for the past couple of months, that another bubble was NOT emerging, but if we continue to see **strange** acquistions like this for these types or prices its hard to argue any other way.
Posted by: David | Sep 12, 2005 6:41:37 AM
Its just for the secret service agencies to be able to control all conversations and communications of skype users.
Ebay was "invited" and used to buy skype, as it is a well known company worldwide.
cheers
John
Posted by: john | Sep 12, 2005 9:49:07 AM
This combo should be viewed as a banking deal. Add PayPal and Skype Minutes and you have a transnational currency. Use them for phonecalls, pay for Ebay purchases or trade 'em with your friends! No currency controls. No exchange rates. Not much govt. interference. For many underbanked parts of the world this could be a very big deal.
Posted by: phoneranger | Sep 12, 2005 9:50:49 AM
I agree with the views of Oliver and Isaac. This makes a lot of sense for Ebay to keep them in the game with google, yahoo, etc. Also, as Fred pointed out on his blog, "Niklas and Janus are in the top tier of entrepreneurs having now done Kazaa and Skype. That's impressive as hell." It was reported that Niklas will be joining Ebay's executive team, so his next 'big idea' will (i assume) be part of Ebay's future. That's gotta be worth something!
Posted by: eric goldstien | Sep 12, 2005 12:35:15 PM
auctions = selling based on intensive communication:
1. showcasing products (the annouced skypesee = video IM could be agreat tool in this)
2. bidding
3. information exchange based on trust in both directions: an instant talk, picture, live video in amny cases do say a lot more than the emailing of today
I think there'e a lot to say for integration of an auction service in a compelling messaging/communication service ....
Posted by: runnerdown | Sep 12, 2005 3:13:33 PM
The only use I can see is providing 800 numbers to they eBay store owners through Skype, and maybe giving bidders an option to call through the auction page.
But realistically, your average Joe isn't going to want to take questions via Skype, or even phone. If you listed an item, would you want people calling your home, or your computer asking you about it?
Posted by: Justin | Sep 13, 2005 1:14:08 PM
This transaction is Ebay becoming a large stupid corporation. They could have invented their own Skype like product for about 1/100 of what they are paying. But if you have an aquisition department they need something to do with themselves.
Posted by: Neubie | Sep 13, 2005 1:37:06 PM
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Posted by: Ben degree | Sep 21, 2005 6:33:15 PM
What is to prevent someone from contacting a seller via free skype services to sell the item off ebay?
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Posted by: ad aware | Nov 17, 2005 6:09:26 AM
It's more of a long term deal with a huge fan base. Problem is nothing in web terms is really "long term", the web companies of last year are overtaken by new ones...
Posted by: Shanghai Fan | Dec 2, 2005 3:13:45 AM
