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Sad iPod
Apple calls this the sad iPod screen.
I call it the sad iPod customer screen.
The iPod is a wonderful device and it has changed my life in many ways.
But these things crash way too easily.
Fortunately Apple is happy to take them back and send another iPod that works.
While my sad iPod has been in the replacement process, which usually lasts about four to six days in total, I have been using my Treo and Pocket Tunes as a replacement.
The good news is that the Treo can be a decent music player. The bad news is you are limited to what the flash memory can store and the experience is far from "plug and play".
But I believe that there is a sliver of an opening in the iPod monopoly based around four issues;
1) The mean time to failure of the iPod is about six months (based on my experience)
2) The planned obsolescence of each new iPod format after about six months (ie photo iPod then video iPod).
3) The insistence on a proprietary music format and now video format that locks the customer into the iTunes music store.
4) The consumer's desire to play music on their phones.
I don't see anyone rushing in to supplant the iPod yet, but it sure feels like the monopoly is getting a bit tired.
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» Re: iPod from The Stalwart
A couple days ago we said that the only threat to the iPod may be the iPod because the rapid introduction of new products has produced a thriving market for older-newer iPods. So naive of us. The secondary market for [Read More]
Tracked on Nov 10, 2005 9:58:38 AM
Posted November 10, 2005 in Venture Capital and TechnologyComments
Fred - would you give someone money to go after Apple on this front? How would they go about it if you were to do so?
1. Players - DEAD END. There are lots of players out there by folks who are darn good at making great mp3 players. some are cheaper than an ipod, some have more capabilities, some are smaller. But they all fail (or flail) in the wake of Apple's ipod. Why? Because it's not about the player, it's about the whole platform. Ipod + itunes + itunes store. You need all three to compete.
2. Phones - DEAD END. Sure, the ROCKR phone is a dud, but it show's Apple's willingness to play on that platform. Would you back someone to build a better music platform for phones? Remember, you need to have the WHOLE shebang to compete with the Apple experience. As soon as someone makes a decent approach to the mobile market, Jobs would no doubt have Apple release iTunes for Palm and other phone platforms. Why not? They've got itunes for Windows? Why is a phone any different than a computer platform. (extra credit bonus question - why isn't there itunes for linux? Because there's no market there. If you didn't notice, Linux is dead on the desktop for normal users. And the geek population that runs it is so small it makes Apple's desktop marketshare look HUGE!)
3. music store - DEAD END. Napster learned the hard way that it's hard to compete with Apple's itunes store even when you have a different business model. How's Yahoo doing? Hmmmm....
Sure, Apple's whole system is "closed" in a sense, but I rarely find that it's borders keep me from doing anything with my music. Sure there are instances where licensing issues come into play, but remember, you dove in KNOWING that was the case. The best part is that considering that it's a "closed" system it simply works. And that's what consumers want. A system that works without a manual, training or pain.
Posted by: David | Nov 10, 2005 8:24:31 AM
In my post on the blog, I forgot to mention that your comment of
"But these things crash way too easily."
is a personal observation. I've not heard or seen this issue. No rash
or reports of crashing on the internet, no class action lawsuit (and they've
had a few of those on the iPod) and no rash of blog entries about it.
I have to question your mental jump that your personal experience shows that
there's a sliver of an opening for someone to get into the market against
Apple.
1) The mean time to failure of the iPod is about six months (based on my experience)
I think the biggest issue with the ipods has been with the battery. So what? I personally
wouldn't give someone money to go after Apple 'cause their batteries sucked.
2) The planned obsolescence of each new iPod format after about six months (ie photo iPod then video iPod).
And the amazing thing is that people keep buying new ipods. You have to also observe what the
consumers have been doing with the iPods. I have 3 iPods. I have a 40gb (3G) iPod that I used in
my truck and also as a backup device for some files on my laptop, I have a shuffle that I use for
jogging and a nano that I use when I travel on flights (3-4 times a month). I bought the ipods because
of my personal *use* of the device, not because the previous one was obsolete. Just because
there's a new model out doesn't mean that my old one stops working. Heck, my car is obsolete
by your definition every year when the next model year comes out. yet, I'm not buying new cars
every year as a result.
3) The insistence on a proprietary music format and now video format that locks the customer into the iTunes music store.
Actually, this is part of the power of the whole experience. As a result of this "insistence", the iPod is wildly
successful because the platform is FORCED to work for consumers and it also plays to the DRM demands
of the music content owners to do the distribution deal with Apple in the first place. I still have maximum
flexibility with my personal music that I have in itunes, so no issue there. (I'm referring to music that
I own that I've added to itunes myself)
I think if you were an investor into Apple the idea of locking a customer into the store would
be a good thing. After all, isn't this why Amazon did one click ordering? They "lock" you in
with ease of ordering.
Fred - do you use Microsoft Office? Same thing, right? Also - it's been pretty darn popular
even with things like open office, etc. that have become available recently.
4) The consumer's desire to play music on their phones.
the issue around phones needs to be examined across continents. In the US, we all have computers,
so our digital lifestyle is centric to our computers. In Asia, they don't have computers, so their life
is centric to their phones. This is similar to Europe who isn't quite to the extent of being phone
centric as Asia, but still way more than we are in the US.
So, what's the strategy here for the (worldwide) mobile phone market? The phone has to be
addressed - in terms of numbers, it would dwarf iPod (and the whole music player market) in
terms of units, and with that comes paying customers.
If I was Steve Jobs, I would release an iTunes player for the mobile marketplace.
Apple's success is a result of their software, not hardware. Steve still has a problem with that
when he thinks about product, but when he makes that jump mentally, Apple is going to
really take off.
As for the monopoly being tired, the next chapter has already started....
...VIDEO. (and it has NOTHING to do with watching video on an ipod, that's
just silly)
David
Posted by: David | Nov 10, 2005 8:50:03 AM
What kind of crashes are you talking about? I managed to reproducably crash my nano, and perhaps you're seeing the same thing?
I blogged a description of the problem. It'd be nice to know if anyone else can reproduce the same. Apple doesn't seem too interested in fixing anything unless a reasonable number of people report it. Apparently one is not a reasonable number.
Posted by: Bosko | Nov 10, 2005 9:22:53 AM
4-6 days? Surely there's an Apple store in Manhattan? They'll hand you a new one on the spot.
Or maybe I'm forgetting that some people can actually live a day w/out their Pod.
I think the QC issues are getting worse. My 40GB died after 9 months-- then I went through SIX (!!!) in seven weeks. The Apple guys just kept shrugging and handing me new (refurbed) ones.
Posted by: Mike Orren | Nov 10, 2005 9:24:45 AM
Mine crashed at almost exactly the six month mark. Crashed permanently; no resetting, reinstalling, etc. could fix it. I did a search and found plenty of other reports about exactly the same problem (google 'sad ipod icon'). One article I found said, "If you see the sad ipod icon, first smile, because it's so cute, then start crying because it's impossible to fix".
Posted by: christy | Nov 10, 2005 9:31:50 AM
May I recommend the Creative Nomad Zen to everyone. I bought the 30GB version (at about $200 less than the Ipod) in mid-2003. I still use the player and it have given me absolutely no trouble at all. Not even the need for a reset.
Sure, the Zen interface sucks (compared toe the Ipod), but at least you can access the batteries and I haven't heard of any problems from my 5-10 friends who own Creative Zen players. I think you can still get the 60GB version for about $200. I'll take function over form anyday.
Posted by: Reuben | Nov 10, 2005 12:05:13 PM
I've had my 40GB iPod Photo for about six months, and it crashed over the weekend (sad iPod icon). I was able to get it into disk mode so it would be recognized by the computer (although it wouldn't mount)... Anyway, I "resotred" the iPod and it worked fine for a couple of days till it crashed again.
I took it to my local Apple store, he frowned when he saw the icon and said "That's never a good sign." He said they had been seeing more and more of these lately.
Then he went in the back and handed me a "new" iPod photo. This one seems to be working... for now.
A word of warning though: If you go in for service, double-check that Apple's record of your purchase date matches up with the one on your receipt, especially if you bought from MacMall or anywhere like that. Mine was about six months off, and that's six months less AppleCare protection I have if the thing breaks again...
Posted by: Rich | Nov 10, 2005 1:27:27 PM
The worship of gadgetry will be the downfall of our society. I don't need a new device every six moths, and my Turntable and Cassete Player still work after over ten years of use. There are no crashes in the Analog world. Hell even CD is preferable to me, if my Discman dies, 50 bucks buys me another, and I don't have to plug it into anything to get it up and running.
Posted by: Jackson | Nov 10, 2005 4:36:56 PM
The great thing about the Treo with Pockettunes is that you can use it with Rhapsody-To-Go. With a 2GB SD card, you can have around 30 albums on there.
Posted by: Stephen Bronstein | Nov 10, 2005 6:55:44 PM
I just carry my guitar.
Posted by: charlie crystle | Nov 10, 2005 9:26:31 PM
Well, I suppose the market opportunity would be possible if your 4 points were true; however, your first point is anecdotal, your second, isn't true, as the photo iPod wasn't followed in 6 months by the video iPod. Also, 6 month obsolescence is the standard in digital cameras, where there are two large trade shows a year, where new product is announced, and yet, this hasn't changed the big players in the market, Canon, and Nikon. Your third point is also wrong. The music format is NOT proprietary. AAC is MP4, it's industry standard, created by the same folks who created MP3. It's the DRM that's proprietary. Of course, all DRM is proprietary. And being locked into the iTMS is not a big deal in whether iPod is going to continue to dominate the market, as most music on iPods has no DRM whatsoever. The other fact, is who cares if you are locked into the iTMS? As long as you have access to any song, and iTMS catalog is the largest, and the price is no more than other stores, and it is, then why would any consumer care if he's locked in? And your 4th point, hasn't been proven. I mean, phones with music, don't have the battery life of dedicated music players. Don't have the storage capacity. Don't have the audio fidelity, and on and on.
As for not seeing anyone rushing to supplant the iPod, didn't you see the plethora of press releases with iPod killers over the last 3 years? Companies rushed, they just didn't succeed.
Posted by: KenC | Nov 11, 2005 1:04:50 AM
Charlie f'ing Christie is a god.....
I gotta meet this guy.
Posted by: Jackson | Nov 11, 2005 7:57:12 AM
I don't think the treo is limited whe compared to the ipod.
2gb is enough to be carrying around when you have internet radio via shoutcast and live tv via mobitv... plus you can actually get work done instead of screwing off!
Posted by: nonobeez | Nov 11, 2005 2:41:11 PM
I'm gonna guess Jackson appreciates a nice analog turntable with Led Zepplin 2, a decent pair of speakers, and an amp that goes up to 11.
I personally hate mp3 as a listening format and think that it has greatly lowered the bar for production quality, and when I mean production I mean quality of sound, not of performance or mix choices. I'll take Talking Heads 77 on a turntable over any hype-compressed Green Day on an iPod any day. If anyone here knows what "warmth" or "dynamics" means, you know what I'm talking about.
Still, the iPod's cool. Granted.
Posted by: charlie crystle | Nov 11, 2005 3:05:59 PM
Yes Nonobeez, I too use Pocket Tunes Deluxe on my treo 650 (and 600) and I love listening to internet radio on them. With an 'all I can eat' plan it doesn't cost extra to tune in, off and on thru the day, to consume a huge variety of music. When I want more of my playlists I have another 1 Gb SD card to pop in.
Posted by: Damon | Nov 11, 2005 5:54:52 PM
Well, the problem is that personal experience is, well, personal.
I just traded in my 20Gb iPod after 3 years to get a 60Gb iPod Video. It never irretrievably broke on me, although during one of the several dozen times I dropped it, I damaged the drive and it's now a 20Gb(3Gb actual) iPod. But I can drop ~$100 and have it back to it's full glory.
While I think the iPods are getting more fragile (my Video iPod doesn't "feel" anywhere near as sturdy as the old one), I think that would be a pretty bad plan to take Apple on with.
As far as 2) goes; Only if you insist of staying "bleeding edge". I work as a tech, and feel I should have the "cool toys" to show clients. I kept this iPod for 3 years.
#3? Um, I already have ~15GB of TV encoded on my iPod from my ReplayTV(think Tivo). That's not very "locked". In fact, I think Apple may have really started the next "MP3" style wave for video. An episode of "The Simpsons" clocks in at ~80MB, same size as an album of MP3.
#4? My urge to have my (business critical) phone die on me because I was listening to Warren Zevon is precisely nil. And the day that happens will likely be the day that it matters, thanks to Finagle.
I'm not about to say that the iPod won't fall. It will, but I think it's going to be more from saturation and a loss of "sex appeal" among MP3 players, once they become sufficiently commonplace. How many Weblog entries do you see discussing a hip, cool, portable CD player? It will eventually turn into a price/looks equation, and Apple will be out. (Or at least not the major player they are now)
Posted by: W. Ian Blanton | Nov 17, 2005 12:28:37 AM
Well I am new to all this, but I am getting an iRiver.
I know this might not be constructive but I just hate Apple, they seem more style over substance. ie G4 etc Sure Apple got it right with the iPod, marketing wise etc and iTunes but I just hate the way Steve Jobs is so bloody sanctimonius (spelling ?!?) Not rational I know, but then is loving an ipod? :)
Suffice to say unless I am given one I will never own and ipod.....
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Posted by: Aaron Keogh | Mar 20, 2006 6:54:20 AM
Hmmm...
I'll just give you my two cents about the iPod. I purchased the original 5GB click wheel iPod about 1 or 2 months after their introduction. I paid a hefty premium for doing so, but I just had to have one. Great product, never had a bit a trouble with it... NEVER.
Last week I had a lightning hit and it took my ipods harddrive as well as several other pieces of equipment, though my computer is fine. It made it from 2001 to 2006 without ANY incidents, makes me wonder if yours was just an aberration or if the newer iPods are not built to the same exacting standards as the originals.
Latez,
J
Posted by: J Stairs | Jun 4, 2006 11:49:49 AM
just a little fyi on the sad apple icon which is how this post started somewhat...i looked over the internet and only one thing worked for me, i was skeptical at first but then i figured "to hell with it, either i do this or im down an ipod" so i read to just smack it on its back against the palm of your hand, rather firmly too....if that doesn't work, put the ipod in a sock and drop it about 5 inches to the ground just not with its screen side down , preferably on the side..and if neither of those work, do the same as the second but have the ipod plugged into the usb...i was lucky the first one worked for me and it has worked fine sicne and i didnt lose my music....
Posted by: John | Jun 30, 2006 8:43:44 PM
hard drive players are on their way out. MRAM (magneto-resistive) is fast and doesn't wear out like flash memory.
in the meantime, do yourself a favor and buy a $50 portable, MP3-on-CDRW player.
Posted by: cmf-seattle | Jul 23, 2006 5:03:58 AM
J Stairs: Your sugestions are exactlly what I need. Smacking it on the back fixed the issue. fyi, I have a 20GB G4, and the iPod fell about 10 feet into dirt, through a grating the day before it died. Thankyou for the assist.
Posted by: Jason | Sep 26, 2006 8:03:43 PM
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