Predicting The Future (continued)

This is the first post in a series I am doing called Predicting The Future.

Ever since I posted my The Future of Media rant, I have been obsessed with the idea that the major media companies need to start putting their television and film assets online for free with an ad supported business model, like they do on broadcast television every day (but not on cable or DVD).

So I really want to see John Battelle's first prediction come true:

1. Someone, and I do not know who, will make a big pile of Big Media video assets freely available on the web - and not via Google Video. This will be a major studio, or television company, which will realize that once you free content, content will come back to you in mashed up and remixed glory that has - holy smokes! - real business models like advertising and retail attached. The deal will be simple: anyone can download, rip, and mix this video, but if you plan to make money from it - even selling ads next to it - you have to cut a deal with the mother ship. The company that does this will be heralded as either visionary, lunatic, or both.

I want to do whatever I can do to make this happen so if you have a technology or business model that can help make this happen, or if you work for a major media company that is thinking this way, please email me and let's talk.

Comments

[archie]

dooo...oooodde!

This is exactly what we were trying to build! A web 2.0 model for media content enriched by a customization, remixes and referral modes!

How do I meet you?

[Damon]

Hi,

I am happy to announce that I have recently received patent protection on technology that deeply enables the prediction above. The intellectual property, realized in a set of 11 different services, has been tested thoroughly by news.com, Google and Microsoft, among many others.

Lets talk when you get back, or lets start an email volley, ok? Wishing you a wonderful holiday. p.s. Great blog - I read it most days.

[Charles Jolley]

Interesting post, Fred. It seems to me that the big hurdle here is that big media companies are not good early adopters of new business models. Media is a hit business. Execs take a lot of risks everyday when they produce new content. They cannot afford to also take too many risks elsewhere.

The only way big media will ever get to this point is through baby steps. Right now they are just trying to get comfortable with the Internet as a distribution channel. They are no where near ready to try such an unproven business model.

I think the companies to watch for in 2006 will focus on adding distribution outlets for content online. Such a company would be like Cafepress for online music and video. The company would negotiate the distribution rights with the big media companies for music and video and then provides an interface so anyone, small companies and even individuals, can create their own personalized music store.

As a blogger, you recommend music all the time. Can you imagine being able to send people to your own online music store so they can purchase and download the music right away and listen to it? I bet a lot of bloggers and small businesses would be very interested in creating online stores with their own specialty selection of music.

This would be great for the big media companies as well. Not only is this a business model they are familiar with (content creator->distributor->retailor) but it would be a great way to effectively sell their back catalog. Many of these stores would offer more eclectic mixes than you can provide in something like iTunes.

Anyway, I don't know why I put this whole business model in a comment here, but I think the time would be right for something like this. If anyone is doing this, I'd like to know too. Maybe we could help you handle all of your email at Sproutit.com. :-)

[Paul Denlinger]

I believe that the first company which will do this will be the BBC. They have the content libraries, and are more willing to experiment...

[Flynn]

It seems a little unrealistic that all this content can be supported via ad dollars. Maybe the current economic boom is causing some blinders here? What happens when the economy eventually dips, and the ad market slides? Content production costs are unlikely to follow suit for most media.

Broadcast TV is probably a bad example to draw from, as our new 'niche-media' world will likely never deliver anything close to broadcast TV's consumer aggregation.

If I were a major media company, I'd want more than one source of revenue.

[Jason L. Baptiste]

Hey Fred, I'll email you the link once I find it again... The NBA will be making every single game available for download and viewing . Some are saying the content will be free for viewing and download, with the goal of hoping users will make their own mixtapes, highlight reels, and such. Money will be made by burning the content to DVDs and such. The most popular mixtapes and highlight reels will also be given a cut of sales. This is a niche form of content, but it could set the path for large media companies. Have a good Christmas.

-Jason L. Baptiste

[Gabriel Morris]

Paul -
The BBC just did it, albeit on a limited basis - http://www.bbc.co.uk/calc/news/intro.shtml