The Blackberry Addiction (Or Why You Might Want to Own RIMM)

  I'm not an addict. 
  Originally uploaded by umop ap!sdn (ej).

I am writing this on my Blackberry 8700 walking up Fifth avenue from my home to my office. Its a regular thing with me. I bump into people all the time. One time I bumped into my friend while he was walking down fifth avenue typing on his blackberry.

I do stop and look up when I cross the streets. I almost got taken out by a truck last month and that scared the shit out of me.

If this sounds like a guy talking at a 12 steps program, it is.

I am addicted to my blackberry. I have been since I got my first pager style unit in 1998. I've learned to manage my addiction. I don't bring my blackberry to bed, to my kids sports games, to dinner with the Gotham Gal. (Just bumped into a large woman in a red coat. She was not pleased)

Last year I tried other smartphones. I had a fling with Treo. It ended in acrimony over unreliability. Then I tried Windows Mobile. What was I thinking? Then Sidekick which I loved but it didn't synch with outlook and so now I've passed Sidekick and smartphone addiction on to my kids. I see myself in them and it kills me.

So here's my point. Owning RIMM is the equivalent of owning Phillip Morris or Constellation Brands without the lawsuits (yet).

Just had a glancing blow with a guy's briefcase. He didn't seem to notice

I've never owned RIMM the stock and don't own it now. It certainly seems like a stock where the good news is already baked into the story.

But I think they've got to move behind the enterprise and into the hands of consumers. Put a camera into the 8700. Knock $100 off the price. Build a killer instant messaging client. My kids are addicted, but not to Blackberry. If they can suck my kids and their friends into the Blackberry addiction, the sky is the limit for this stock.

Just had my third collision. And now I am at work. That's about par (just missed another person).

That's my take on RIMM. Here's Wallstrip's take:

Comments

[Chuck Fishman]

Actually I'm NOT addicted to the email function on my Blackberry Verizon 7250. It's the new browser software. I can now check with frequency:

-- my MySpace page
-- Comcast email
-- Yahoo email

By the way, if Helio bills itself at the exclusive MVNO that offers cellphone MySpace access ... well, they haven't realized the Blackberry browser allows for mobile MySpace access yet.

[Erik Schwartz]

I assume you've seen this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2la_aGzpw8

[Michael Air]

Did you find the width of the blackberry hard to get used to? The width is the one thing that's kept me from moving to a blackberry.

[gareth wong]

Blackberry is a proven email (now mobile) device that does not crash as much as other platforms (like yourself, I tried them all).

RIM people are pretty clever bunch, and probably had expected your comments/suggestions, and brought out the Blackberry Pearl: http://www.blackberrypearl.com/

The really interesting thing is whether:

a.) Pearl would enable RIM to move into the mass market
b.) whether the ecosystem of VAS software provider for RIM (who had been able to charge 20-40 US for seemingly very simple software/add-ons) would face dramatically higher competition (due to higher takeup & bigger addressable market), hence put pressure on their pricing structure, or the other way around (join the high charging club).

Eitherway, its good to have better and more reliable mobile devices on the market.

Much better for us business and indeed personal consumers (it took me a couple of years to convince my wife to move to the BB 7100 now).

BR
Gareth

PS: great that you all can keep up writing great blogs for us to dip in and contribute .

[Rick]

My 8700 is awesome. I went through 4 treos in a year, then switched to a bberry 5290 and it lasted 2.5 years. I can drop this sucker off the roof and it'll still kick.

I really need IM on it. The only one that works (and works well) is the Google messenger that was made specifically for bberry.

The only problem with it is that I only know two other people who use Gtalk. (If google and AIM open up, I'm set.)

[Mike Orren]

Another reason to own RIMM: The analysts are loving the stock after the intro of the 8100, or Pearl as it is affectionately called.

I got an 8100 a few weeks ago (http://www.texasgigs.com/blogs/notmusic/2006/sep/17/customer/), and it is my all-time favorite gadget. Functionally like the 8700, but add a camera, video/mp3 (Don't think the 8700 has) and it is as tiny as most candybar phones. Inexplicably, the tiny keyboard works just fine with my fumbling fingers.

[JayR]

I just got the 8700, having given up on my Treo, which seemed to have an addiction to crashing. One way to try to wean yourself off is to have your company's Blackberry server malfunction for a couple of days - it's been working wonders for me.

[Tony Alva]

I'm quickly coming to the conclusion that my Sprint PPC-6700, while rich with other non-email related features, is sub par to the old BB I gave up. Yeah, it crashes every now and again, but the worst part for me is the lousy phone/voice quality. The ear volume is horendous. It doesn't serve any Bluetooth device very well either. You can barely hear with any of them including the best of the lot. I do like it's Outlook email uasability and the landscape screen, but as a single phone/email device I should have listened to your advice. I got greedy for Windows apps and now I'm looking for a Pearl.

[howard Lindzon]

saw the pearl but looked not doable for major email but sweet looking for sure.

compared to my two week stint of crakberry and on the Q, it's heaven.

I do dislike the phone still but hey

[Kevin Hawkins]

Fred - I think that Apple will come into your kids market faster than RIMM. It’s unfortunate because Blackberry (an established brand with Parents) has room to move down into a younger demographic and really make a go of it. However, Apple's appeal to your kids market probably far outweighs RIMM.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20061016/apple-iphone.htm

[Justin Ward]

Personally, I'm of the "if someone's in my way while commuting and they're focused on their blackberry and not walking or bumping into people, I'M ANNOYED" variety. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that...

While they're great for productivity (for some people), I still see them as a huge contribution to the decline of politeness, personal courtesy, and overall attention span (and therefore, productivity) in way too many people in this world.

CrackBerry. Scary stuff...

[Erik Schwartz]

I was going to get a Blackberry Pearl as a replacement for my Treo 600. Then I actually played with a Pearl at the T-Mobile store. It felt cheaply made, it seemed unlikely to hold up to my life. If it looks that beat up after a week in a t-Mobile store, I'd kill it in a month.

I got a Treo 700P instead.

[jackson]

As a recovering addict, I can tell you that you are without hope, you have to want to get better, want to stop, and judging by your post, that's a long way off, you're going to have to bottom out first.

[charlie crystle]

Fred, for a guy so interested in social technologies, that's rather anti-social behavior. It's not just annoying, it's dangerous, rude, and selfish. To hell with me, but I really implore you to come up with a different routine, like stopping for a moment out of the way, or posting while on the train. I'd hate to see someone pop you one because you smacked into them.

That said, this was a really great post. :)

[hello]

Fred,

I'm on my fourth generation Treo (Sprint) with no crashes or replacements. I had my Treo 600 for ~4-5 years, until it finally gave up the ghost last month. After 4 years of *hard* service, I couldn't complain :).

I have the TreoP now (with Motorola H700 bluetooth headset), and love it. I have no probelm with business or personal e-mail, have auto-sync with multiple e-mail addresses on multiple servers. Browsing is quite snappy too. I don't myspace, but audio/video streaming on the 700P via Sprint (SprintTV) is quite good -- I won't use SprintTV unless travelling, but I was pelasantly surprised.

As for IM, that's a function of your network carrier. Sprint has AIM built-in, just be sure to get an unlimited data plan. GoogleTalk is available with any mobile application that supports the Jabber protocol, and IRC is available too.

Also Sprint is full EVDO, though Verizon FIOS may match those speeds soon. FIOS is not available in my area.

I've had Blackberries (from work), and didn't like them as much as my Treo. The Blackberry phones have never matched the audio quality of the Treo phones.

Perhaps you use a separate phone?

[howard Lindzon]

I say go for it. Blackberry rear view mirrors - who wants in?

[John]

Wow, this post with WallStrip screams: "RIM has jumped the shark!!"

Short!!

While it's been awhile since Microsoft, through slow but steady improvements has eaten someone's lunch, it is interesting that the new version of Exchange can push e-mail delivery . . . Thus ending RIM's near monopoly on this key feature.

[simon]

buahah freds funniest post yet ...

[Michael]

To you folks who have had Treos that crashed a lot... were those Palm or Windoze based Treos? I've had a Palm based Treo for 3 years and rarely get any crashes.

[craigbuj]

No position in RIMM but...

RIMM has ~6m subs. If you assume 50% of the 600mil global email boxes will not be mobile email users for a variety of reasons, this leaves 300 mil email boxes for the corporate mkt alone. Quick analysis shows RIMM subs are currently ~2% of this TAM. If you make an assumption they get to say 6% penetration by ‘08 that means RIMM can grow subscribers 200% over the next 2 years. Not bad growth, eh Fred?

The whole key to the consumer mkt is how quickly you see operators do a land grab for subs and slash data plan pricing. Wonder if they will be driven towards this given 100% data attach rates for them w/ blackberries vs under 5% for the vast majority of other handsets sold today by them...

If you make some modest assumptions that RIMM’s earnings power could be $5.00+ by FY08, while consensus thinking is $4.13 today (and was $3.75 30 days ago). That puts RIMM at 22x ‘08, on 40%+ EPS growth. If you pull back the #’s a bit to be conservative, you still get north of 30% EPS growth, thus less than 1x it's growth rate. If the stock trades to 1x PE/Growth that gets you to $150+ over next 12 months. I am sure the stock will now head directly to $95 on some headline news and the momentum crowd will rush out. At $100 you have $50 up / $10 down, 5:1 risk reward makes sense to me below $100.

[Charlie Crystle]

plus it's really neat.

[Mike McCready]

Fred,

I sent an email to Union Square Ventures and got a response from Andrew
Parker saying the best way to contact you was here. I don't have a
BizPlan to pitch; just thought we should be on each others' radar. Btw,
I unfortunately lost my Treo and am looking for a replacement and considering a Blackberry. Might be time to try one but since I'm in Europe so much I think the expensive data plans will kill me.

Mike
www.mikemccready.com

[bobby orbach]

Are we addicted to our self created information overflow? They call those devices “Crackberries”, when you find yourself in bed at 2Am using the backlit 4 inch screen to check and respond to your emails that’s the beginning sign of addiction. When you are out somewhere without connectivity (and without mobile devices) you instinctively touch your hip because you think it’s vibrating, that’s the beginning sign of addiction.

We have created a new language LOL, cyul8er, pih,f2f,p2p, J etc., and Google is a verb.

So what happens with our real world?? Do real conversations and quiet dinners go away? Do we now communicate with our loved ones only via email and IM?

Who has the time anymore? What with all the hours spent creating fake MySpace celebrity pages and linking them to real accounts, setting up new SecondLife virtual businesses, sending IMs to all your buddy list correspondents, Skyping colleagues to keep up to date on what they are doing around the world, updating your LinkedIn profile and writing endorsements for others, reading blogs and RSS feeds, downloading free music to play on your iPod, updating all of your blogs and creating podcasts, sending out these email updates to your mailing list, maintaining the mailing list and associated Web sites and checking out the latest overnight rankings on various game servers, is there any time left to just live your life in what it used to be? What are we giving up, or better what are we giving away.

just my .02

[ej]

Hey! That's my Blackberry and my can of Coke! *lol*

[Lamar Carroll]

I am only 16 years old and I am addicted to my blackberry 7250. People at school think I am crazy. All the older people think that it is a game or a caculator.
I am currently working on the money for the 8700.

Crackberry Holla!!!!!