2007: Broadband Internet Video

I really wrestled with the terminology for this post headline. I called it IPTV initially but Ari's comment gave me the right words. Thanks Ari. I am talking about downloading and watching TV (I mean that broadly to include anything you'd watch today on your TV) on any internet connected device.

We are Netflix customers. Before we left on our trip to Italy, we refreshed our selections and came with six DVDs. We used them up in the first couple days between the flight over and a couple of nights where it was tough to fall asleep. So we went to iTunes and started downloading TV shows and movies. In the evenings, after dinner and before bedtime, the girls have watched the first and second seasons of Grey's Anatomy. Josh and I have watched three movies we downloaded to my laptop via iTunes.

But I don't think iTunes is the only model for IPTV. It's one model and with the arrival of iTV from Apple in 2007, iTunes will be able to play on your big screen TV. That's a big deal to some.

I think people consistently overestimate the "quality" and "screensize" issues in the IPTV debate and underestimate the issues of convenience and ubiquity of content. I have found that time and time again, ubiquitous content of poor quality wins over a narrow selection of high quality.

Last night after dinner, our whole family crowded onto the master bed in one of our two hotel rooms and watched Good Will Hunting on my 15" MacBook Pro. Nobody complained about the lack of quality or screensize. I am not saying that families are going to start throwing away their family room flat panels and replace them with MacBook Pros, but I am saying that a ton of content that used to be watched in the family room is going to be watched on other devices.

What are those devices? Desktop and laptop PCs, xBox and other game devices, PSP and other portables (maybe even smartphones). It's exploding TV time and 2007 is going to be a breakout year.

In addition to iTunes/iTV, we are going to see The Venice Project come to fruition in 2007. It will start on Windows PCs, but I hope and expect to see a Venice client for Mac, xBox, and PSP before year end. For those of you who don't know, The Venice Project is the next thing the guys who did Kazaa and Skype are doing. First it was music, then telcom, now TV and Film. The one thing I wonder about The Venice Project is whether they'll be able to quickly amass a large enough catalog of content. They are working in partnership with the major content owners, an approach that hasn't worked too well in the past for companies looking to disrupt industries.

And you cannot underestimate the power of web video (YouTube, Google Video, etc, etc). I would expect to see a number of these players adopt a client like The Venice Project and also a p2p backbone, and offer the content that is building on their networks in downloadable formats. I also expect more and more people to connect a web browser to their family room systems and start watching web video sitting around after dinner.

Finally, there is the role of feeds in all of this. When video content owners really turn on their feeds, who knows what is going to happen. I already have a number of video feeds coming into my iTunes. But I keep it limited because video feeds are a great way to fill up your hard drive really fast. But the storage issues are going to get solved soon enough. And I would bet that video distribution ten years from now is largely built on a feed based architecture.

That's it for now. I've already broken my pledge to keep these posts short. I'll be back tomorrow with another theme for 2007.

Comments

[Mitch Denny]

Hi there,

I tend to agree. Before I moved into my current bandwidth blackhole I was more content watching whatever I could find on YouTube, Google Video or whatever else. It was free content, but if it was reasonably priced I would pay for it (not a huge fan of iTunes on Windows).

I am convinced that regular broadcast media is dead - they just don't know it yet.

[Ari Paparo]

Great post. Convenience definitely trumps quality and Venice will be successful only if it makes deals with content providers.

I have to put in my 2c regarding terminology. IPTV is definitely *not* the right term. IPTV means what you say it means -- video channels offered by the incumbent telecos over copper.

I personally like "Broadband Video" or "Internet Video" as differentiated terms. There will still be a grey area when you're talking about watching RocketBoom on your TiVo, but at least this gives us a starting point to clarify the discussion.

IPTV: Telecos
VOD/iTV: Cable
Broadband: Internet/PC

[Stephen L. McKay]

Fred,

First I just want to say I have really been enjoying your posts, and photos from Italy. I was in Europe in October and the history, architecture, and culture everywhere you go is so interesting!

Regarding your post, I too agree with most of what your saying, but I for one can’t get too excited about watching a full length feature film on a small screen. It’s great for short clips, and things like WallStrip, or when access to other devices is limited, but my preference will always be a large flat panel with exceptional sound quality. The richness, clarity, and the ability to notice and identify small details in a film are all part of the experience, and smaller screens just don’t cut it. There is definitely a place for this though, and I do agree that the entire landscape of how we receive, organize, share, and experience our media is in but the very early stages of it’s evolution.

In addition to The Venice Project, and along slightly different lines, I’m interested in Wikiasari. These two (from what I can gather) seem to have the most potential for disruption right now, if they are close to living up to the hyperbole.

[Daniel]

I agree with your post and it only goes to show how out of touch the entertainment industry is. They keep thinking we want more of the same, TVs with better resolution, Blueray/HD-DVD, etc. They fail to realize that what we really want is control.

I want to see what I want, when I want on my own terms.

[Hank Williams]

I'm not clear what the significance of the venice project is other than that it was done by the skype guys. People are talking about it as though it is a big deal, and perhaps it is by virtue of the founders pedigree, but I would love to know what the *consumer* benefit is. I am clear on operational benefit of p2p, as I have personally been a champion of the technology. But what is the consumer facing unique new benefit of the idea. Why will it be different than youtube other than that they dont need to spend money on bandwith?

[John Dodds]

I know my prejudice that movies can only truly be experienced in theatres (just like bands can only really be experienced live) colours my reaction to your post. But a movie on a 15" screen?

I'm happy to watch TV clips on one (though in reality I notice that I listen rather than watch) but I'd have to say that the availability of alternatives is key. In Venice, your family had few obvious english language entertainment options, so you subsisted on the 15" screen and low quality because it was the only convenient option. But in a world of numerous convenient options e.g. Manhattan, I'm sure your Benthamite utility calculations would be very different.

Content may migrate to other devices, but I'm not sure the thrill of the new will last long. Historically, I'm not sure i can think of a market where the consumer drive has been towards anything but higher quality experiences with the greatest weighting placed on the traditional definition of that word.

[Dave Forde]

Fred - great post as usual. As far as whether the Venice Project will be able to launch with content or not. I really don't think it matters right out of the gate, however the entertainment industry will jump on board (somehow). Let's face it, they guys are 'disrupters' first with Kazza and then with Skype, anything they create ends up creating its own market. This really isn't any different then Steve and his baby iPOD which has grown into how many billions of dollars for it, iTunes and all the other 3rd party products.
What is different this time around is they have everyone blogging about it which can only increase its growth exponentially.

[T.D. Shadow]

I foresee the iTV's introduction to coincide with the introduction of 720p and 1080p paid content. They've been doing free content (trailers) that way for a while. The current 480p limit on paid content was dipping the toe in the water. Expect a flood of free and paid content to suddenly be available in 720p and 1080p via the iTunes Store on the day iTV comes out.

[Tim Peter]

I think you're onto something here, Fred. When I was a (pompous, audiophile) music student years ago, I was stunned by fellow students willing to listen to crappy third-generation dubbed cassettes of legendary performances when better audio options existed. The quality of the medium mattered far less than the quality, convenience, and price of hearing the performance.

I know folks have predicted this for years, but with the advent of browsers on consoles (see Opera on the Wii, for instance) and mobile phones, what's to say we don't begin to see these devices assume the role of hub in the equation? So long as you've got connectivity and the right applications for accessing content from multiple sources (disc, network [broadcast or IP], etc.), folks will consume content that matters to them. They'll care less about what the source is, so long as it meets their criteria for convenience and cost. Most folks (not those who live on Engadget or Gizmodo) don't care about having multiple devices. They'd just as soon have the one or two that let them get to what they really want: content they enjoy. Whether the box ends up as a TV, computer, console, i-Something, mobile phone, or whatever takes a backseat to achieving that goal. People don't buy drills because they need drills; they do it because they need holes. The company that can consolidate the devices (and associated subscriber services) folks need to get the content they desire likely wins this one.

[DL]

a couple days before Christmas I posted "TV vs VT" and put a few of my ideas in prospective with regard to the whole broadband internet video/IPTV/dotTV thang. My POV is that whatever this ends up being called, people are really taking to the unscheduled on-demand video experience, they just like to do it. In 2007, I think we'll see some very interesting events occur around dotTV. I think we'll see the internet on more large screens and more people in lean back internet surfing mode in part because of Wii.

Video watchword for 2007: discovery not search

Maybe you'll enjoy my post, I have enjoyed yours in 2006.

Happy New Year from Boulder

http://loooktv.wordpress.com/

[Ephraim Cohen]

A company I work with (Glowria) is moving from the Netflix model to the Cinemanow/IPTV model in Europe. Certainly, with IPTV the topic of any video feed any where often comes up. But what we also discuss is personalization. Most of the time, I don't want to look for video, I want to turn on the TV and watch something. With true IPTV (video to a real TV interface), I'm looking to receive personalized video channels that know I want to watch the news at 8, a comedy at 11 and a kids oriented action movie on Sunday night. I see this as a great app for the mass market that would rather just sit on the couch and watch then actively search out video on a YouTube channel.

[Dustin]

I had this idea about ten years ago, but did not have the knowledge, resources, or bandwidth. I am surprised that Netflix hasn't started something similar though.

[Chris Brogan...]

I agree wholeheartedly, but then again, I work for Jeff Pulver. Of course I believe in the future of broadband internet as a platform for video. It's how a gazillion more interesting people will suddenly become what we call "Mini Moguls," by programming their own TVs with their own choices.

Why watch Katie when I can watch Rocketboom? Why watch a rehashed sitcom when I can watch Something to be Desired?

Great post, Fred. Coming to Video on the Net this March?

[Mark Tomin]

IPTV should be great. Not only will it relieve bandwidth load from TV cable providers but it will make advertising a much more profitable business since it will be much easier to target and get feedback from the audience. I also wonder why they didn't call IPTV, TVOIP? Just like VOIP?

High Speed Internet Access and Broadband Provider

[vic]

Well, even NetFlix was supposed to eventually be an online idea, hence the "net" in Netflix. Guess Netflix was ahead of the game years ago.

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