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Predictions
I've read all the 2007 predictions posts and they are generally good and worth reading.
But by far my favorite set of predictions comes from Bob Lefsetz. It's mostly about the music business but there's enough in there about tech and the web to interest anyone. I love the way Bob just calls it as he sees it, pulls no punches, and is generally right.
Comments (3) | Posted January 2, 2007 in My Music , Venture Capital and Technology
Comments
Lefsetz's predictions were pretty negative, but I think they add up to a conclusion that its hard to make money in music. I'd tend to concur. Margins are skinny up and down the chain because costs are meaningful and there are a lot of hands out each looking to take a piece, and at the same time, P2P keeps a lid on pricing. Tough business.
My predictions for consumer internet in '07 are below, with details after the link if you're interested
1. Ecommerce 2.0 arrives
2. Social Network widgets find a business model
3. Lead generation breaks into new categories
4. Social Networking finally becomes a feature
5. News of TV’s death are greatly exaggerated
6. Software as a Service gets customer facing
Posted by: jeremy liew | Jan 2, 2007 4:45:41 PM
After reading the predictions from Bob Lefsetz, Rags Gupta and Hypebot on what they think will shakeout in the digital music space in 2007, I thought I'd throw some more of my thoughts out as well - in short, 2007 is going to be the year of the acquistion. In no particular order...
eMusic gets acquired - either by Microsoft or Amazon
Last.fm gets acquired - smart money is on Google, but if Real was able to dig up enough of their settlement cash from Microsoft, then a Last.fm/Rhapsody combination is an extremely compelling service
Pandora gets acquired - gotta think this is Microsoft considering they have already partnered with them for the MSN Radio relaunch
Mercora gets sued - the labels will need to make an example of someone that they think is violating DMCA, and Mercora looks like a great target
SpiralFrog launches with a thud - the ad supported model may eventually work for downloads, but I don't think SpiralFrog will be the ones to pull it off
Zune slowly starts to make inroads - this is the equivalent of Microsoft Windows Mobile (CE) vs. Palm OS battle of last decade.... MS will spend enough time and effort to make this work for them
Apple iTV will get lukewarm response - remember the Mac Mini? It was supposed to be perfect for this application as well...
I've also posted my thoughts on Bob's predictions (specifically on Zune and Rhapsody) at http://globallistic.blogspot.com. I'd be interested in others' thoughts.
Posted by: Jason Herskowitz | Jan 3, 2007 7:22:46 AM
Hi, Fred. I wonder what your predictions for vertical search in 2007 are, with the big search engines working on their own vertical search (ie, Google Base), some sources not liking being indexed by these new engines (ie, Craigslist)...
As an investor in one of the leading vertical search engines, how do you think 2007 will be for startups in vertical search?
Posted by: Inaki | Jan 8, 2007 5:24:47 PM
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